Mehdi Ghorbani; Seyed Amirhossein Garakani; Mina Hamidi; Sajad Amiri; Majid Rahimi
Abstract
Social capital is defined as a set of relationships, networks, trust, needs, and participatory systems within a society that enables it to confront challenges and improve the living conditions of its members. This study was conducted to analyze the intra-group social capital in three villages: Eskelabad, ...
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Social capital is defined as a set of relationships, networks, trust, needs, and participatory systems within a society that enables it to confront challenges and improve the living conditions of its members. This study was conducted to analyze the intra-group social capital in three villages: Eskelabad, Eslamabad Kalleh-ye Espid, and Chah-e Ahmad in Tafatan city. Given the importance of participatory management and strengthening social capital, analyzing the link between trust and participation among individuals in these villages is essential. The network analysis method was used to examine the links of trust and participation among individuals and villages of interest. The results before the project implementation showed low levels of trust, participation, cohesion, and social capital. However, after the project implementation, these indicators improved, and trust, participation, and the speed of interaction among individuals increased. The project implementation has led to increased unity and cohesion among village residents, increasing the intra-group social capital. In other words, improved communications have led to increased social welfare and the expansion of trust and participation among the residents.
MohammadReza Akbari; majid rahimi
Abstract
Extreme events such as drought and floods in Iran have always been one of the most important and harmful issues in the country and their occurrence and prediction have been in the focus of most researchers. Occurrence of floods in recent years and the inability of the management system to act in a timely ...
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Extreme events such as drought and floods in Iran have always been one of the most important and harmful issues in the country and their occurrence and prediction have been in the focus of most researchers. Occurrence of floods in recent years and the inability of the management system to act in a timely manner to reduce its effects on flood-prone communities have led everyone to use various methods to predict floods. However, the lack of facilities for monitoring and collection of meteorological and hydrological data in the country's watersheds is considered a major obstacle to flood studies. Therefore, using the minimum available data to predict floods can be a good way to plan and study floods in Iran quickly. Therefore, in this study, the application of ARIMA time series modeling and ARIMA-Fourier hybrid model for modeling the maximum instantaneous discharge on an annual scale in 6 stations of Gorganroud watershed was investigated. The results showed that the use of ARIMA model alone cannot have an acceptable result, especially in the annual data scale, but the application of ARIMA-Fourier model could well increase the accuracy and efficiency of the model, so that the accuracy and efficiency indices of the model were significantly improved. As a result, the use of hybrid models such as ARIMA-Fourier can be used to improve the modeling efficiency of flood flows time series.
