نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

نیازهای در حال تحول حوضة دریاچة ارومیه، با توجه به رشد جمعیت، ایجاد تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضای آب را در این زیست‏بوم دشوار ساخته و وضعیتی بحرانی را در تأمین نیاز اکولوژیکی‏ دریاچه رقم زده است. در این شرایط منابع آب حوضه باید در چارچوبی پایدار مدیریت شود. از این رو، از چارچوب تصمیم‏گیری چندشاخصه استفاده شد تا برتری گزینه‏های موجود برای تأمین آب یا حفاظت از این منابع مشخص شود. وزن‏ شاخص‏های توسعة ‏پایدار در ساختاری سلسله‌مراتبی و بر اساس مقایسة ‏زوجی تعیین و، به جای پیروی از قالب معمول، از روش درجه‏بندی استفاده شد. این روش، به‏ جای مقایسة گزینه‏ها، مقیاس‏های کیفی را به صورت زوجی مقایسه‏ می‏کند و مشکل وارونگی رتبه‏ها و وقت‏گیربودن فرایند نظرسنجی را برطرف می‏سازد. برای ارزیابی گزینه‏ها نیز از مدل VIKOR استفاده شد؛ این مدل قابلیت ارائة مجموعه‏ای از راه‏حل‏های توافقی را به جای یک جواب داراست. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد VIKOR مدلی مطلوب و مؤثر برای رتبه‏بندی گزینه‏های مدیریت منابع آب به‌شمار می‏رود و مطابق نتایج این رویکردِ دومرحله‏ایِ سلسله‏مراتبی- توافقی رویارویی با بحران آب در حوضه با هدفمندساختن مشارکت جوامع محلی، بهینه‌‏سازی، و حفاظت از منابع طبیعی موجود امکان‏پذیر به‌نظر می‏رسد و همچنین اتکای کلیشه‏ای به تأمین آب بر اساس احداث سازه‏های آبی جدید بدون ارزیابی‏های مربوط به توسعة ‏پایدار کارگشا نخواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Two Stage Multi Attributes Decision Making to Evaluate the Sustainability of Lake Urmia Restoration Alternatives

نویسندگان [English]

  • ali azarnivand 1
  • Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib 2

1 PhD student, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Owing to the oncoming needs and increasing the population of Lake Urmia Watershed, providing equilibrium  between water supply and demand seems quite challenging and the Lake cannot be successful in meeting its ecological demands in this critical condition. In this unfavorable situation, water resources must be managed through a sustainable context. With this knowledge in hand, a multi attributes framework was applied to investigate the preference of supply or conservation alternatives. Preference of sustainable development attributes was calculated in a pairwise hierarchical structure and instead of time-consuming conventional procedure, Absolute Measurement was used that compares qualitative scales instead of alternatives and can overcome the problem of rank reversal in pairwise comparison. Ranks of the Alternatives were evaluated by VIKOR method which can provide a set of compromise solutions instead of one solution. Due to sensitivity analysis performance, VIKOR was introduced as a robust model in ranking the water resources alternatives. With regards to the results of this two-stage hierarchical-compromising approach, dealing with Watershed crisis is depended on organized indigenous collaboration, water use optimization and protecting available natural resources. On the other hand, supplying water by structural development without sustainability consideration would not be effective.   

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Crisis
  • Sustainability
  • Absolute Measurement
  • hierarchical structure
  • Vikor

 

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