تصمیم‏گیری چندشاخصة دومرحله‏ای برای ارزیابی پایداری گزینه‏های احیای دریاچة ارومیه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

نیازهای در حال تحول حوضة دریاچة ارومیه، با توجه به رشد جمعیت، ایجاد تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضای آب را در این زیست‏بوم دشوار ساخته و وضعیتی بحرانی را در تأمین نیاز اکولوژیکی‏ دریاچه رقم زده است. در این شرایط منابع آب حوضه باید در چارچوبی پایدار مدیریت شود. از این رو، از چارچوب تصمیم‏گیری چندشاخصه استفاده شد تا برتری گزینه‏های موجود برای تأمین آب یا حفاظت از این منابع مشخص شود. وزن‏ شاخص‏های توسعة ‏پایدار در ساختاری سلسله‌مراتبی و بر اساس مقایسة ‏زوجی تعیین و، به جای پیروی از قالب معمول، از روش درجه‏بندی استفاده شد. این روش، به‏ جای مقایسة گزینه‏ها، مقیاس‏های کیفی را به صورت زوجی مقایسه‏ می‏کند و مشکل وارونگی رتبه‏ها و وقت‏گیربودن فرایند نظرسنجی را برطرف می‏سازد. برای ارزیابی گزینه‏ها نیز از مدل VIKOR استفاده شد؛ این مدل قابلیت ارائة مجموعه‏ای از راه‏حل‏های توافقی را به جای یک جواب داراست. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد VIKOR مدلی مطلوب و مؤثر برای رتبه‏بندی گزینه‏های مدیریت منابع آب به‌شمار می‏رود و مطابق نتایج این رویکردِ دومرحله‏ایِ سلسله‏مراتبی- توافقی رویارویی با بحران آب در حوضه با هدفمندساختن مشارکت جوامع محلی، بهینه‌‏سازی، و حفاظت از منابع طبیعی موجود امکان‏پذیر به‌نظر می‏رسد و همچنین اتکای کلیشه‏ای به تأمین آب بر اساس احداث سازه‏های آبی جدید بدون ارزیابی‏های مربوط به توسعة ‏پایدار کارگشا نخواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


 

[1] Acharya, A., Piechota, T.C., Stephen, H. and Tootle, G. (2011). Modeled streamflow response under cloud seeding in the North Platte River watershed, Journal of Hydrology, 409(1-2), 305-314.
[2] Ananda, J. and Herath, G. (2003). The use of Analytic Hierarchy Process to incorporate stakeholder preferences into regional forest planning, Forest Policy and Economics, 5(1), 13-26.
[3] Asgharpour, M. (2008). Multi-Criteria Decision Making, 6th edition, University of Tehran (In Persian).
[4] Ataie, M. (2010). Multi-Criteria Decision Making, 1st edition, Shahrood University of Technology (In Persian).
[5] Azar, A. and Rajabzadeh, A. (2012). Applied Decision Making MADM Approach, 5th edition, Negaheh Danesh (In Persian).
[6] Azarnivand, H. and Zareh-Chahouki, A. (2010). Range Improvement, 1st edition, University of Tehran (In Persian).
[7] Cai, X., McKinney, D. and Rosegranta, M.W. (2003). Sustainability analysis for irrigation water management in the Aral Sea region, Agricultural Systems, 76(3), 1043-1066.
[8] Chang, C. and Hsu, C. (2009). Multi-criteria analysis via the VIKOR method for prioritizing land-use restraint strategies in the Tseng-Wen reservoir watershed, Journal of Environmental Management, 90(11), 3226-3230.
[9] Chang, C.L. and Lin, Y.T. (2014). Using the VIKOR method to evaluate the design of a water quality monitoring network in a watershed, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 11(2), 303-310.
[10] Daemi, A.R. (2009). Impacts of Climate Change on Lake Urmia, Kondouj Magazine, Guilan Rural Heritage Museum, 5(8), 18-22 (In Persian).
[11] De Carvalho, R.C. and Magrini, A. (2006). Conflicts over Water Resource Management in Brazil: A Case Study of Inter-Basin Transfers, Water Resources Management, 20(2), 193-213.
[12] Department of environment of I.R.IRAN. (2010). Integrated Management Plan for Lake Urmia Basin.
[13] Despic, O. and Simonovic, S.P. (2000). Aggregation operators for soft decision making in water resources, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 115(1), 11-33.
[14] Ebrahimzadeh, I. (2009). Analysis of the Recent Droughts and Lack of Water in Hamoon Lake on Sistan Economic Functions, Iran Water Resources Research, 5(2), 71-76 (In Persian).
[15] Ghorbani, M., Mehrabi, A.A., Servati, M. and Nazari Samani, A.A. (2010). An Investigation of the Population Changes on Relationship with Landuse Changes (Case study: Upland watershed of Taleghan), Journal of Natural Environment, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, 63(4), 75-88 (In Persian).
[16] Ghorbani, M., Azarnivand, H., Mehrabi, A.A., Bastani, S., Jafari, M. and Nayebi, H. (2013). Social network analysis: A new approach in policy-making and planning of natural resources co-management, Journal of Natural Environment, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, 65(4), 553-568 (In Persian).
[17] Jaiswal, R.K., Thomas, T., Galkate, R.V., Ghosh, N.C. and Singh, S. (2014). Watershed Prioritization Using Saaty’s AHP Based Decision Support for Soil Conservation Measures, Water Resources Management, 28(2), 475-494.
[18] Karamouz, M. (2005). Quantitative and Qualititative Planning and Management of Operating and Allocating Water with Emphasize on Negotiation, Applied Research plan, Water resources company, Technical and Research Department (In Persian).
[19] Karamouz, M., Mojahedi, S.A. and Ahmadi, A. (2007). Economic Assessment in Development of Operating Policies for Inter- Basin Water Transfer, Iran Water Resources Research, 3( 2), 10-25 (In Persian).
[20] Lennox, J., Proctor, W. and Russell, S. (2011). Structuring stakeholder participation in New Zealand's water resource governance, Ecological Economics, 70(7), 1381-1394.
[21] Loucks, D.P. (2000). Sustainable Water Resources Management, International Water Resources Association, 25 (1), 3-10.
[22] Ministry of Energy (2000). Annual Report of national water resources and consumption, Tehran (In Persian).
[23] Motevallian, S.S., Tabesh, M. and Roozbahani, A. (2011). Sustainability assessment of urban water supply and distribution systems: a case study, The second Iranian National conference on applied research in water resources, Zanjan, Iran. 18-19 May
[24] Opricovic, S. (1998). Multicriteria optimization of civil engineering systems, Faculty of Pennsylvania, Belgrade.
[25] Opricovic, S. (2011). Fuzzy VIKOR with an application to water resources planning, Expert System Application, 38(10), 12983-12990.
[26] Pires, A., Chang, N. and Martinho, G. (2011). An AHP-based fuzzy interval TOPSIS assessment for sustainable expansion of the solid waste management system in Setubal Peninsula, Portugal, Journal of Environmental Management, 92 (4), 1033-1050.
[27] Saaty, T. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource, Allocation, MCGraw-Hill, New York, 287p.
[28] Saaty, L.T. (2008). Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process, International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), 90-94.
[29] Sadoddin, A., Halili, M. and Mosaedi, A. (2010). Reservoir Operation Management Using Multicriteria Decision Making Methods in Bustan Dam-Golestan Province, Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science, 4(11), 25-34 (In Persian).
[30] Saffari, N. and Zarghami, M. (2013). Allocating the Surface Water Resources of the Urmia Lake Basin to the Stakeholder Provinces by Distance Based Decision Making Methods, Water and Soil Science, 23(1), 135-149. (In Persian)
[31] Salemi, H.R. and Heydari, N. (2006). Assessment of Water Supply and Use in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran, Iran Water Resources Research, 2(1), 72-76 (In Persian).
[32] Sarandón, R., Novillo, M.G., Muschong, D. and Borges, V.G. (2009). Lacar Lake Demonstration Project for Ecohydrology: Improving land use policy at Lacar Lake Watershed based on an Ecohydrological approach (San Martín de los Andes – Neuquén – R. Argentina), Journal of Ecohydrology and Hydrology, 9(1), 125-134.
[33] Sima, S., Ahmadalipour, A. and Tajrishy, M. (2013). Mapping surface temperature in a hyper-saline lake and investigating the effect of temperature distribution on the lake evaporation, Remote Sensing of Environment, 136, 374-385.
[34] Wallenius, J., Dyer, J.S., Fishburn, P.C., Steuer, R.E., Zionts, S. and Deb, K. (2008). Multiple criteria decision making, multiattribute utility theory: recent accomplishments and what lies ahead, Management Science, 54(7), 1336-1349.
[35] Yilmaz, B. and Harmancioglu, N.B. (2010). Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a case study of the Gediz River Basin, Turkey, Water SA, 36(5), 568-574.
[36] WCED. (1987). Our Common Future: The Brundtland Report, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 236p.
[37] Zarghami, M. and Ehsani, I. (2011). Evaluation of different Group Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods in Selection of Water Transfer Projects to Urmia Lake Basin, Iran Water Resources Research, 7(2), 1-14 (In Persian).