Document Type : Research Paper


1 university of jiroft

2 hormozgan

3 Tehran university


The overuse of fossil fuels, population growth and other factors have caused evident changes in the Earth climate. In this study, HadCM3 model was used to evaluate changes in the variables of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures at Jiroft plain in future periods. Afterward, climatic variables was simulated by the LARS-WG model in the periods of 2011-2030 (horizon 2020) and 2046-2065 (horizon 2055) under three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1. The results showed that the highest amounts of minimum and maximum temperatures will occur based on three scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 in the horizon of 2055. By comparing the average of the monthly minimum and maximum temperatures in the base period (1989-2010) and future periods (under the scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1), the average temperature will increase in the most months of the year. During the scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, the most annual precipitation will occur in the horizon of 2020. The average amounts of monthly precipitation will increase in the months of January, August, September, October, November and December and will decrease in the other months. Comparing long-term annual precipitation shows that the lowest amount of precipitation will happen under the scenario of B1 and during the period of 2046 to 2065. However, the most precipitation will happen under the scenario of A1B and during the 2011-2030 period.


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