تحلیل منطقهای بار رسوب معلق با استفاده از روش رگرسیون مؤلفههای اصلی در حوضة آبخیز سفیدرود

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدة علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی، تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدة علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی، تهران

چکیده

رسوب ناشی از فرسایش خاک به عنوان مهم‌ترین نمایة تخریب اراضی، چالشی مهم در بحث توسعۀ پایدار و تهدیدی بر زیست بوم‌ها تلقی می‌شود. لذا برآورد معتبر رسوب خروجی از آبخیزها بسیار حائز اهمیت می‌باشد. گستردگی آبخیزها و کمبود ایستگاه‌های سنجش رسوب باعث شده است تا از روش‌های تحلیل منطقه‌ای جهت برآورد بار رسوب معلق در آبخیز فاقد و یا کمبود آمار استفاده شود. هدف از این تحقیق تحلیل منطقه‌ای بار رسوب معلق با استفاده از روش رگرسیون مؤلفه‌های اصلی در مناطق همگن حوضة آبخیز سفیدرود با مساحت 59273 کیلومترمربع است. در این پژوهش، 23 ایستگاه رسوب‌سنجی با دوره‌های آماری 30 سال انتخاب گردید و میانگین سالانة رسوب زیرحوضه‌ها به عنوان متغیر وابسته و 18 متغیر فیزیوگرافی و هیدرولوژیک مربوط به زیر‌حوضه‌ها به عنوان متغیر مستقل تعیین شدند. پس از تعیین مناطق همگن، در هر منطقة همگن براساس روش تجزیة مؤلفه‌های اصلی (PCA) مؤلفه‌های مؤثر در رسوب شناسایی شدند. درنهایت ارتباط بین بار رسوب معلق در دورة بازگشت‌های مختلف و مؤلفه‌های مؤثر در مناطق همگن تعیین شدند. نتایج نشان داد که ایستگاه های واقع در منطقة مورد مطالعه با بکارگیری تحلیل‌خوشه‌ای در دو گروه همگن قرار گرفتند. براساس تجزیة مؤلفه‌های اصلی، در منطقة همگن یک، 18 متغیر به 5 مؤلفه با توجیه بیش از ۸۷ درصد واریانس و در منطقة همگن دوم داده‌ها به 3 مؤلفه با توجیه بیش از 92 درصد واریانس خلاصه شدند. همچنین با استفاده از رگرسیون مؤلفه‌های‌اصلی در منطقة همگن 1 فاکتور اول با مقدار ضریب‌تبیین دبی رسوب 25 ساله  67/0 و در منطقة همگن 2، نیز فاکتور اول و دوم با ضریب‌تبیین 32/0 وارد مدل شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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