azadeh bazrmanesh; Mostafa Tarkesh; Hossein Bashari; Saeid Poormanafi
Abstract
In order to model the potential habitat of Bromus tomentellus Boiss and study the effect of climate change on the habitat of this species in Isfahan province method of modeling maximum entropy (MAXENT) were used. The species event data were determined by random categorization method using field visits ...
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In order to model the potential habitat of Bromus tomentellus Boiss and study the effect of climate change on the habitat of this species in Isfahan province method of modeling maximum entropy (MAXENT) were used. The species event data were determined by random categorization method using field visits and geographic information system including 60 rangeland locations as educational points. Also, 20 points of occurrence were surveyed using GPS in the western region of Isfahan as points of assessment. 22 environmental layers including 3 physiographic variables and 19 climate variables derived from temperature and rainfall were used in the modeling process. Using by Maxent, the relationship between species incidence and environmental factors was determined. Then, the effect of climate change using cluster variables of CCSM4 general circulation model was evaluated under two scenarios RCP2.6 (optimistic) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic) on geographic distribution of Br.tomentellus Boiss. Regarding the photo curves, the specie’s behavior relative to the environmental variables of Br.tomentellus Boiss in the range of 2500 to 3500 altitudes, slope 10 to 30 degrees, annual precipitation is 240 to 260 mm and the average temperature is 8 to 10 ° C are more likely to occur. The habitat of the species studied during the two periods of 2050 and 2070, it was observed that under the optimistic scenario, 46.1 square kilometers to the appropriate level of the habitat of the Br.tomentellus Boiss is increased and under a pessimistic scenario, about 35.74 km2 is reduced from the appropriate level of habitat of this species.
