Javad Motamedi; Morteza Khodagholi
Abstract
Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades, and many studies have focused on its various aspects. In the present study, the effect of climate change on the distribution of Bromus tomentellus was investigated. To do this, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables ...
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Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades, and many studies have focused on its various aspects. In the present study, the effect of climate change on the distribution of Bromus tomentellus was investigated. To do this, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and logistic regression model were used to quantify climate change in 2050 and to study its effects on the change of B.tomentellus species. First, using 17 synoptic stations in and near the province, a database of precipitation variables, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also using the digital model of height, with an accuracy of 30 meters; physiographic variables of slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, the presence and absence points of the species were determined and using logistic regression, its vegetative behavior was determined and the modeled map and related equations in the current conditions were calculated. Using current equations and inserting data extracted from the Worldclime database; the future distribution map for 2050 was generated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed; the average annual temperature (BIO1), the annual temperature range (BIO7) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) are the most important for habitat fit, the values of which increase with increasing climatic conditions. Average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades, it will rise by 1.6 to 1.2 degrees Celsius.
