Prediction of current and future range of Bromus tomentellus in southern Alborz rangeland habitats, Qazvin province

Motamedi, Javad; Khodagholi, Morteza

doi:10.22059/jrwm.2022.339573.1647

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Javad Motamedi ¹
Morteza Khodagholi ²

¹ Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

² Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jrwm.2022.339573.1647

Abstract

Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades, and many studies have focused on its various aspects. In the present study, the effect of climate change on the distribution of Bromus tomentellus was investigated. To do this, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and logistic regression model were used to quantify climate change in 2050 and to study its effects on the change of B.tomentellus species. First, using 17 synoptic stations in and near the province, a database of precipitation variables, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also using the digital model of height, with an accuracy of 30 meters; physiographic variables of slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, the presence and absence points of the species were determined and using logistic regression, its vegetative behavior was determined and the modeled map and related equations in the current conditions were calculated. Using current equations and inserting data extracted from the Worldclime database; the future distribution map for 2050 was generated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed; the average annual temperature (BIO1), the annual temperature range (BIO7) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) are the most important for habitat fit, the values of which increase with increasing climatic conditions. Average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades, it will rise by 1.6 to 1.2 degrees Celsius.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Range and Watershed Managment

Prediction of current and future range of Bromus tomentellus in southern Alborz rangeland habitats, Qazvin province

References

References

Volume 75, Issue 2
September 2022
Pages 319-332

Prediction of current and future range of Bromus tomentellus in southern Alborz rangeland habitats, Qazvin province

References

References

Volume 75, Issue 2September 2022Pages 319-332

Volume 75, Issue 2
September 2022
Pages 319-332