Somayeh Taheri; Hasan Ahmadi; Jamal Ghodousi; ُSadat Feiznia; Shahram Khalighi Sigaroudi; Mohamad Hossein Ramesht
Abstract
subsidence in urban areas poses significant risks to infrastructure, including buildings, roads, railways, pipelines, sewage systems, and wells. Therefore, assessing its potential is crucial. This study models the subsidence risk in Karaj city using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Weight ...
Read More
subsidence in urban areas poses significant risks to infrastructure, including buildings, roads, railways, pipelines, sewage systems, and wells. Therefore, assessing its potential is crucial. This study models the subsidence risk in Karaj city using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Weight of Evidence (WoE) model. To achieve this, we created maps of factors influencing subsidence, such as slope, alluvial thickness, groundwater fluctuations, aquifer layering, particle size, and permeability. These maps were then compared with recorded subsidence data to determine the weight of each factor's influence. By integrating the effects of these factors, a Subsidence Index (SI) map was generated and categorized using the Success Rate Curve (SRC), identifying five sensitivity zones from very sensitive to very low sensitivity. The effectiveness of the WoE model was evaluated, revealing that the subsidence sensitivity prediction map covers 93.64% of actual occurrences. Results indicated that aquifer layering positively influences subsidence development, with the highest impact arising from alluvial deposits with good permeability and fine particles. This factor, with a weight of 3.72, demonstrates significant influence among all evaluated parameters. In terms of thickness, the most significant subsidence occurred in alluvial deposits exceeding 200 meters. Areas experiencing groundwater level declines of over half a meter annually markedly contributed to subsidence. Additionally, slopes of less than two degrees were identified as the most susceptible to subsidence. Thus, while many areas in Karaj are relatively safe, the threat is notably higher in the southern and southwestern parts, requiring special attention in urban management.
mina pouresmaeel; ali salajegheh; Arash Malekian; amirreza keshtkar
Abstract
The complexity of the urban environment makes it difficult to consider all the vulnerable components of the urban. Hence, decision-making in urban environments is one of the most important issues in modern management. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate the urban vulnerability of ...
Read More
The complexity of the urban environment makes it difficult to consider all the vulnerable components of the urban. Hence, decision-making in urban environments is one of the most important issues in modern management. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate the urban vulnerability of Azimiyeh in Karaj to flood based on multi-criteria decision-making method. The statistical population includes specialists who had sufficient knowledge and experience in the field of vulnerability management in urban areas. To this research, first, comprehensive knowledge of the factors affecting the urban vulnerability to floods was obtained using library studies, and then, the results of the Delphi technique, , was shown that among the primary indices, a total of 11 effective indicators were selected and a map of each of them was prepared using ArcGIS software. Then, the urban vulnerability to floods was calculated using the TOPSIS method. The study area was divided into 13 sub-areas based on runoff directional pattern and field observations, and then the decision matrix was made according to 13 sub-areas and 11 indicators. The results showed the vulnerability of this region to floods, which among the studied sub-areas, in sub-areas No. 1 and 2 observed the highest of flood vulnerability and the lowest of it observed in sub-area No. 13. Causes of flood vulnerability in the region include a direct connection to the upstream catchment that has lithology impermeable and geologically impermeable, high-density of building and population, and lack of proportionate open spaces.
