Land Subsidence Hazard Assessment using Weights-of-Evidence model (Case Study: Karaj City)

Taheri, Somayeh; Ahmadi, Hasan; Ghodousi, Jamal; Feiznia, ُSadat; Khalighi Sigaroudi, Shahram; Ramesht, Mohamad Hossein

doi:10.22059/jrwm.2024.22623.0

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

² Department of Rehabilitation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

³ Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran

10.22059/jrwm.2024.22623.0

Abstract

subsidence in urban areas poses significant risks to infrastructure, including buildings, roads, railways, pipelines, sewage systems, and wells. Therefore, assessing its potential is crucial. This study models the subsidence risk in Karaj city using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Weight of Evidence (WoE) model. To achieve this, we created maps of factors influencing subsidence, such as slope, alluvial thickness, groundwater fluctuations, aquifer layering, particle size, and permeability. These maps were then compared with recorded subsidence data to determine the weight of each factor's influence. By integrating the effects of these factors, a Subsidence Index (SI) map was generated and categorized using the Success Rate Curve (SRC), identifying five sensitivity zones from very sensitive to very low sensitivity. The effectiveness of the WoE model was evaluated, revealing that the subsidence sensitivity prediction map covers 93.64% of actual occurrences. Results indicated that aquifer layering positively influences subsidence development, with the highest impact arising from alluvial deposits with good permeability and fine particles. This factor, with a weight of 3.72, demonstrates significant influence among all evaluated parameters. In terms of thickness, the most significant subsidence occurred in alluvial deposits exceeding 200 meters. Areas experiencing groundwater level declines of over half a meter annually markedly contributed to subsidence. Additionally, slopes of less than two degrees were identified as the most susceptible to subsidence. Thus, while many areas in Karaj are relatively safe, the threat is notably higher in the southern and southwestern parts, requiring special attention in urban management.

Keywords

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Journal of Range and Watershed Managment

Land Subsidence Hazard Assessment using Weights-of-Evidence model (Case Study: Karaj City)

References

References

Volume 77, Issue 3
October 2024
Pages 389-402

Land Subsidence Hazard Assessment using Weights-of-Evidence model (Case Study: Karaj City)

References

References

Volume 77, Issue 3October 2024Pages 389-402

Volume 77, Issue 3
October 2024
Pages 389-402