Journal of Range and Watershed Managment

Comparison of stochastic models and conceptual models in hydrological drought forecast (case study: Karkheh River Basin)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Ommolbanin Bazrafshan 1
Ali Salajegheh 2
Ahmad Fatehi 3
Abolghasem Mahdavi 4
Javad Bazrafshan 5
Somayeh Hejabi 6

1 Assistant Professor. Agricultural and Natural Resources Faculty, University of Hormozgan, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Center of Water Shortage and Drought Research in Agriculture and Natural Resources, Iran.

4 Professor, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

5 Assistant Professor, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

6 PhD. Student, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jrwm.2014.50026
Abstract
Drought is random and nonlinear phenomenon and using linear stochastic models, nonlinear artificial neural network and hybrid models is advantaged for drought forecasting. This paper presents the performances of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Direct multi-step neural network (DMSNN), Recursive multi-step neural network (RMSNN), Hybrid stochastic neural network of directive approach (HSNNDM) and Hybrid stochastic neural network of recursive approach(HSNNRM) with time scale monthly and seasonally for hydrology drought forecasting and SDI selected as predictor in the Karkheh river basin. The results shown performances of HNNDA was found to forecast hydrological drought with greater accuracy for SDI forecasting, so performances model in monthly scale was greater accuracy to seasonality scale.

Keywords

Artificial Neural Networks
Hybrid models
forecasting
Hydrological drought
stochastic models
Journal of Range and Watershed Managment
Volume 66, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
Winter 2014
Pages 493-508

  • Receive Date 31 January 2012
  • Revise Date 11 January 2014
  • Accept Date 13 November 2012
  • Publish Date 20 February 2014

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