Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Drought Characteristics in the Future Period using the HadCM3 model (Case Study: Northwest of Iran)

Salehpour Jam, Amin; Mohseni Saravi, Mohsen; Bazrafshan, Javad; Khalighi, Shahram

doi:10.22059/jrwm.2015.53472

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

https://doi.org/10.22059/jrwm.2015.53472

Abstract

Investigation of drought event has a great importance in the natural resources management and planning water resources management. In this research, the effect of the climate change on drought characteristics in northwest of Iran was investigated using the HadCM3 model under A2 scenario. The statistical downscaling was executed using SDSM 4.2.9 and observed daily precipitation, observed predictors and large-scale predictors derived from the HadCM3 model. Afterwards the SPI was calculated for different time scales of 3, 12, 24 and 48 months in the observed period of 1977-2006 and three periods of 2007-2036, 2037-2066 and 2067-2096. Obtained results show that the mean annual precipitation at the stations of Ardebil, Khoy and Oroomieh was decreased in the future periods and it was also increased at the station of Tabriz in the future period. The Ardebil station with the depletion of 97 mm (32 %) in the fourth period than the observed period has maximum rate of the depletion. The results also show that the drought occurrence with more intensity, duration and frequency can occur in the future periods. The comparison of the results between different stations shows that the Ardebil station has the most intensity of dry period in time scales of 3, 12 and 24 months based on the maximum cumulative intensity of dry periods among the stations. On the time scale of 48 months, the Oroomieh station with the cumulative intensity of -92.78, has the most intensity of dry period between the different stations.

Keywords

References

[1] Abbasi, F. and Asmari, M. (2011). Forecasting and assessment of climate change over Iran during future decades using MAGICC-SCENGEN model, Water and Soil, 25, 70-83.

[2] Bootsma, A., Gameda, S. and McKenney, D.W. (2005). Impacts of potential climate change on selected agroclimatic indices in Atlantic Canada, Canadian Journal of soil science, 85, 329-343.

[3] Dastorani, M.T., Massah Bavani, A.R., Poormohammadi, S. and Rahimian, M.H. (2011). Assessment of potential climate change impacts on drought indicators (case study: Yazd Station, Central Iran), Desert, 16, 159-167.

[4] Golmohammadi, M. and Massah Bavani, A. (2011). Investigation of climate change impact on drought intensity and duration, Water and Soil, 25, 315-326.

[5] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007). Summary for policy makers. In: IPCC. Climate change: The physical Science basic, Contribution of working group first to the Fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge university press, 450p.

[6] Labedzki, L. (2006). Estimation of local drought frequency in central Poland using the standardized precipitation Index (SPI), Irrigation and Drainage, 56, 67-77.

[7] Lazar, B. and Williams, M. (2008). Climate change in western ski areas: potential changes in the timing of wet avalanches and snow quality for the Aspen ski area in the years 2030 and 2100, Cold regions science and technology, 51, 219-228.

[8] Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Tzabiras, J. (2008). Climate change effects on drought severity, Advances in Geosciences, 17, 23-29.

[9] McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J. and Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, 8th conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, USA.

[10] Mohammadi, H., Moghbel, M. and Ranjbar, F. (2010). The study of Iran's precipitation and temperature changes using MAGICC-SCENGEN model, Journal of Geography, 25, 125-142.

[11] Mohammadi, H. and Taghavi, F. (2005). Trend of extreme indices of temperature and precipitation in Tehran, Geography researches, 53, 151-172.

[12] Morid, S., Moghaddam, M., Paymozd, Sh. and Ghaemi, H. (2005). Design of Tehran province drought monitoring system, Final Report, Water Resources Management Co. (WRMC-Iran), 196p.

[13] Sayari, N., Alizadeh, A., Bannayan, M., Farid Hossaini, A. and Hesami Kermani, M.R. (2011). Comparison of two GCM models (HadCM3 and CGCM2) for the prediction of climate parameters and crop water use under climate change (case study: Kashafrood Basin), Water and Soil, 25, 912-925.

[14] Schoof, J.T. and Pryor, S.C. (2001). Downscaling temperature and precipitation: A Comparison of regression-based methods and artificial neural networks, International Journal of climatology, 21, 773-790.

[15] Wilby, R.L. and Wigley, T.M.L. (2000). Precipitation predictors for downscaling: Observed and general circulation model relationships, International Journal of Climatology, 20, 641-661.

Journal of Range and Watershed Managment

Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Drought Characteristics in the Future Period using the HadCM3 model (Case Study: Northwest of Iran)

References

References

Volume 67, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
May 2015
Pages 537-548

Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Drought Characteristics in the Future Period using the HadCM3 model (Case Study: Northwest of Iran)

References

References

Volume 67, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4May 2015Pages 537-548

Volume 67, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
May 2015
Pages 537-548