Document Type : Research Paper


1 Faculty member of Shomal University and Phd student in Watershed Management , agriculture and natural resources of sari university

2 agriculture and natural resources of sari university Assistant Prof ,

3 Prof, agriculture and natural resources of sari university

4 Associate Prof,Natural Recources, Faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University


Present study is aimed at forecasting and comparison of future climate change by using GCM model (General circulation model) under different climate scenarios in Talar watershed of Mazandaran province. Regarding the data of existing stations, to study the climate change phenomenon in Talar watershed, the LARS-WG5 model and 3 climate scenarios i.e. A1B, A2, B1, each in three emission series i.e. 2011-2026, 2046-2061, and 2080-2095, that were extracted from Gharakhayl regional synoptic stations in Quaemshahr, were used and the base year was considered 1992-2007( for a 15- year duration). Since this model is one of the most authentic statistical downscaling methods and its data is produced in three phases of calibration, evaluation and development of meteorological data, it was applied for research in present study. According to the findings, the most precipitaion changes occurred in May and October and the most severe reductive changes occurred in 2080-2095, the result of which warns about seasonal floods in rainy months and drought or water shortage in dry months in the relevant watershed study area. Besides, in future in June, July, August, and September temperature increase will be experienced but in January and February, the minimum simulated tempreture mean will be observed.


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