Document Type : Research Paper




Land use Changes have recently been increasing due to anthropogenic and climatic factors. Natural resources management critically needs land use maps and simulation of its changes for understanding the interaction and relationship between humans and natural phenomena, as well as for making premium decisions. Accordingly, present study has dealth with simulation of future changes land use of Kessillian watershed. Hence, land-use and land cover maps of the catchment was prepared by using multi-period Landsat images captured in 1986, 2000, and 2011. Then, applying cellular automaton and Markov model, the land-use/land cover condition in 2011 was predicted 0.9 using ROC. Thereafter, this model was run for simulating land-use/land cover changes in 2030. According to the results of detection and simulation of changes, forest land reduction trend will continue but the area of rangelands and inhabited areas will expand. Agricultural lands will not seriously change due to steep slope and low fertility after several consequent plantings. In most cases, maximum changes occurred around the forest and rangeland areas and changes will decrease far from these margins. Markov model can precisely show the land changes in the area via time period and can anticipate the future of them. Therefore, this model can be applied in order to manage the land.


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