نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکدۀ منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استاد دانشکدۀ منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

ارزیابی فراوانی چشمه‌ها به موضوعی مهم برای برنامه­ریزی استفاده از زمین، به خصوص شناسایی منابع آب زیرزمینی و حفاظت از محیط‌زیست تبدیل شده است. بدین منظور جهت تولید نقشۀ فراوانی چشمه­های حوزۀ آبخیز بجنورد، از روش رگرسیون لجستیک باینری (به منظور وجود و عدم وجود چشمه)، تکنیک­های سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) و سنجش از دور (RS) استفاده گردید. در این منطقه تعداد 359 چشمه شناسایی شد و 14 عامل مؤثر در وجود چشمه شامل تراکم خطواره، فاصله از خطواره، فاصله از آبراهه، تراکم زهکشی، شاخص پوشش گیاهی (NDVI)، انحنای پروفیل، انحنای مماسی، نسبت سطح، برآیند بردار، بارندگی، ارتفاع، زمین­شناسی، جهت­های جغرافیایی و شیب مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. ضرایب عوامل مؤثر توسط رگرسیون لجستیک از 300 چشمه که به صورت تصادفی انتخاب‌شده بودند، به دست آمد. از 59 چشمۀ دیگر برای مرحلۀ اعتبار­سنجی استفاده شد. در نهایت نقشۀ فراوانی چشمه­­ها به چهار طبقۀ احتمالاتی خیلی کم، کم، متوسط و زیاد تقسیم گردید. نتایج نشان داد که وجود بیش از 80 درصد از چشمه­ها به درستی پیش­بینی گردید. همچنین دقت مدل با استفاده از منحنی ROC، 6/86 درصد تخمین زده شد که نشان­دهندۀ دقت بالای مدل در تحلیل فراوانی چشمه­ها در منطقۀ مورد مطالعه است. در پایان عوامل تراکم زهکشی، شاخص پوشش گیاهی، برآیند بردار، بیش‌ترین ضریب و عوامل شیب، ارتفاع و نسبت سطح کمترین معنی­داری را در بروز چشمه­ها داشته­اند. با توجه به نتایج این تحقیق، می­توان از این روش برای شناسایی منابع آب زیرزمینی در مناطق کارستی استفاده کرد و در بهبود مدیریت جامع حوزه­های آبخیز کارستی، نقش مهمی ایفا نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of a logistic regression to assessing and mapping frequency of Springs in karst regions (Case study: Bojnourd Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Akbar Nazari Samani 1
  • alireza oliaye 2
  • sadat feiznia 3

1 UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN

2 university of tehran

3 UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN

چکیده [English]

Assessment frequency of springs has become an important issue for land use planning, especially water resource identification and environmental protection.The purpose of this study is to produce a spring occurrence potential map in Bojnourd Basin, based on a logistic regression method using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS). The locations of the springs (359 springs) were determined in the study area. In this study, 14 effective factors including spring were used in the analysis: lineament density, distance to lineament, distance to drainage, drainage density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), profile curvature, tangential curvature, surface rate, vector dispersion, precipitation, elevation, geology, aspect and slope. Binary logistic regression coefficients of the variables by selecting 300 spring randomly. 59 another spring were used for validation that 80.6% of the springs were correctly predicted. The accuracy of the model was measured using ROC curves which showed that accuracy is 86.6 percent which indicates that the model shows high accuracy in the analysis of spring occurrence potential in the study area. The results showed that the distance of lineaments, distance of drainage, drainage density, vegetation index, profile curvature, tangential curvature, vector dispersion, precipitation and slope have the greatest impact on the occurrence of springs. Finally, spring occurrence potential map was divided into four probably classes of very low, low, medium and high. According to the survey results, this method can be used to identify sources of groundwater in karstic zones and has important role in better management of the karstic Basins.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • frequency of spring
  • karstic terrain
  • Logistic regression
  • Bojnourd Basin
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