Trend and stationarity patterns of surface flow time series in the Southern Slopes of Alborz Range

Document Type : Research Paper


Gorgan University of Agricultural and Natural Resources


Trend and stationarity analyses of hydrological variables are useful tools for understanding climate change and may provide useful information about likely changes in the future. As non-stationary of time series can occur due to various reasons such as trend existence in data; therefor, in current study the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was used to detect the trend of the data. A corrector approach, namely “TFPW” was utilized to modify the effects of serial dependence of the time series on the trend detection results. The stationarity of time series was tested by unit root and stationarity tests to evaluate the relationship between trend and stationarity of the time series. The results showed that the surface flows of all of the studied rivers have a decreasing trend; although the significant trends changed to insignificant ones after applying TFPW approach. The results of the stationarity tests showed non-stationary time series for all of the sites after removing the serial dependence of the series, which is a sign of the lack of trend existence in the time series; however, Latian station (Lar river) reveals non-stationarity after applying TFPW which may be originated from the existence of abrupt changes in the series. The findings of current study can help the planners and policy-makers and water resources managers to cope with climate change in the future.


 [1]   C. Field, V. Barros, D. Dokken, K. Mach, M. Mastrandrea, T. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. Ebi, Y. Estrada and R. Genova, "IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
[2]    J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. Johnson, "IPCC 2001: Climate Change 2001," The Climate change Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change, vol. 159, 2001.
[3]    S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. Miller, "IPCC, 2007: summary for policymakers," Climate change, pp. 93-129, 2007.
[4]    V. Feizi, M. Maryam, M. Farajzadeh and G. Azizi, "Spatial and Temporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Iran," ECOPERSIA, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 727-742, 2014.
[5]    Y.-F. Sang, Z. Wang and C. Liu, "Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 510, pp. 293-298, 2014.
[6]    K. Adamowski, A. Prokoph and J. Adamowski, "Development of a new method of wavelet aided trend detection and estimation," Hydrological Processes, vol. 23, no. 18, p. 2686, 2009.
[7]    Q. Shao and M. Li, "A new trend analysis for seasonal time series with consideration of data dependence," Journal of hydrology, vol. 396, no. 1, pp. 104-112, 2011.
[8]    O. I. A. Aziz and D. H. Burn, "Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin," Journal of hydrology, vol. 319, no. 1, pp. 282-294, 2006.
[9]    D. H. Burn and M. A. H. Elnur, "Detection of hydrologic trends and variability," Journal of hydrology, vol. 255, no. 1, pp. 107-122, 2002.
[10] D. H. Burn, J. M. Cunderlik and A. Pietroniro, "Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River basin/Tendances hydrologiques et variabilité dans le basin de la rivière Liard," Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 53-67, 2004.
[11] S. Yue, P. Pilon, B. Phinney and G. Cavadias, "The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series," Hydrological Processes, vol. 16, no. 9, pp. 1807-1829, 2002.
[12] K. Hamed, "Enhancing the effectiveness of prewhitening in trend analysis of hydrologic data," Journal of hydrology, vol. 368, no. 1, pp. 143-155, 2009.
[13] P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, "Iranian rainfall series analysis by means of nonparametric tests," Theor Appl Climatol, vol. 116, p. 597–607, 2014.
[14] B. S. Some'e, . A. Ezani and H. Tabari, "Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran," Atmospheric Research, vol. 113, pp. 1-12, 2012.
[15] M. Birsan, L. Zaharia, V. Chendes and E. Branescu, "Seasonal trends in Romanian streamflow," Hydrological Processes, vol. 28, no. 15, pp. 4496-4505, 2014.
[16] R. M. Hirsch, R. B. Alexander and . R. A. Smith, "Selection of methods for the detection and estimation of trends in water quality," Water resources research, vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 803-813, 1991.
[17] P. Gao, X.-M. Mu, F. Wang and R. Li, "Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 1-10, 2011.
[18] H. B. M. K. H. a. M. T. Eskandari, "Desertification of forest, range and desert in Tehran province, affected by climate change," Solid Earth, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 905-915, 2016.
[19] H. B. Mann, "Nonparametric tests against trend," Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pp. 245-259, 1945.
[20] M. Kendall, Multivariate analysis, Charles Griffin, 1975.
[21] G. C. Blain, "The influence of nonlinear trends on the power of the trend-free pre-whitening approach," Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 21-28, 2015.
[22] W. V. G. P. a. V. J. Wang, "Trend and stationarity analysis for streamflow processes of rivers in western Europe in the 20th century," in IWA International Conference on Water Economics, Statistics, and Finance Rethymno, Greece, 2005.
[23] H. Chen, S. Guo, C.-y. Xu and V. P. Singh, "Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin," Journal of hydrology, vol. 344, no. 3, pp. 171-184, 2007.
[24] Z. Xu, K. Takeuchi and H. Ishidaira, "Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation," Journal of hydrology, vol. 279, no. 1, pp. 144-150, 2003.
Volume 71, Issue 2
September 2018
Pages 537-550
  • Receive Date: 24 December 2016
  • Revise Date: 11 October 2018
  • Accept Date: 14 December 2017
  • First Publish Date: 23 August 2018