One of the important relations in the erosion of gullies is to study the threshold of erosion creation and expansion. In recent decade, creation of new knowledge in determination of relation between variables was led to develop prediction methods in different science and therefore, investigating the ability to use these methods in erosion and soil conservation is essential. Also, in order to control the erosion of the gully, the mechanism of gullies growth and its dimension expansion, especially increasing in gullies length, has to be carefully determine; for this purpose, the present study aimed to determine the threshold of the most effective factors on increasing the length of the gully, using the K-Means data mining algorithms and the CART decision tree in the Ghazian watershed in the north of Fars province. The results of this study, which include measuring various variables of gullies under field condition and in laboratory, and using data mining techniques, showed that increasing the length of gully in this area depended on the factors of the area above headcut, saturated extract electrical conductivity, forehead slope, canopy cover percentage, and sodium adsorption ratio. It is recommended control of erosion in the foreheads is highly important in reducing the increase in gullies length and sediment production. Also, improving the soils of this area with soil amendments and the restoration of compatible vegetation and the increase in soil organic matter should be considered as the priority of effective actions to control the increasing length of gullies.