Simulation and prediction of climatic components of maximum and minimum temperature using CanESM2 model output in future periods, Case study ؛ Meyme plain, Isfahan province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report shows that the world average temperature has increased to 0.6 ° C ± 0.2 ° C in the twentieth century. Therefore, long-term prediction of climate variables and the consideration of measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change is evident. The SDSM model was used to downscale observation data of the minimum and maximum temperatures of the Vazvan Meyme station in Isfahan province. The CanESM2 global model data under new emission scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are used to predict the near future (2006-2036), mid-term (2037-2078) and far-away future (2079-2100). The studies show the ability of the SDSM model to model maximum and minimum temperatures in the base period. The results of this study necessary indicate that as we get closer to the 21st century, the minimum and the maximum temperatures increase in the area of study. The average maximum temperature changes will have the highest increase under the RCP8.5 scenarios in the (2079-2100), in July, which will reach 7.9 ° C. The average changes in minimum temperature show the highest increase in August under the RCP8.5 scenarios. Therefore, considering that this temperature increase in future periods will affect the status of the study area, water resources, and natural resources. Planners and authorities of the relevant departments will take the necessary measures, such as measures to correct irrigation systems, methods for reducing evaporation and improving the cultivation system, to adjust the damage caused by heating or adapt to the new climatic conditions.

Keywords


Volume 74, Issue 2
September 2021
Pages 359-372
  • Receive Date: 08 December 2018
  • Revise Date: 27 January 2019
  • Accept Date: 28 January 2019
  • First Publish Date: 23 August 2021