Quantifying the size of climate change effect on groundwater draw down in arid and semi-arid regions

Eskandari Damaneh, Hamed; Zehtabian, Gholamreza; Khosravi, Hassan; Azarnivand, Hossein; Barati, Aliakbar

doi:10.22059/jrwm.2021.314882.1553

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Postdoctoral researcher, Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran.

² Professor, faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran

³ Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran

⁴ Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran

⁵ , Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22059/jrwm.2021.314882.1553

Abstract

The present research aims to assess climate change in the Minab plain and its effect on groundwater level variability in the future period. Climate change was explored by the climatic model CanESM2 using the SDSM4.2 software package, and the effect of climate change on groundwater resources was quantitatively modeled in the GMS10.0.5 software package under the emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results for the effect of climate change in the future period in the context of these scenarios showed that temperature will increase by 1.88ºC, 2.60ºC, and 4.28ºC and precipitation will decrease by 34.19%, 42.08%, and 59.43% versus the reference year, respectively. The results for the application of the climatic scenarios using the groundwater model revealed that due to the decline of precipitation in this period, mean groundwater level balance in the future periods leading to 2019, 2024, 2029, and 2035 versus the reference year (2003-2004) will be -13.99, -19.003, -22.70, and -25.61 m/yr in RCP2.6, -13.99, -18.95, -22.75, and -24.73 m/yr in RCP4.5, and -14.23, -19.22, -22.003, and -25.46 m/yr in RCP8.5, respectively. This shows that the drawdown will be being aggravated over time. Finally, this decline of precipitation and rise in temperature due to climate change and the subsequent increase in water abstraction for different uses will result in the growing depletion of the groundwater tables in Minab. So, it is recommended to planners and authorities to adopt strategies for adaptation to new climatic conditions and water scarcity and accommodate themselves with future conditions.

Keywords

References

[1] Abbasnia, A., Yousefi, N., Mahvi, A. H., Nabizadeh, R., Radfard, M., Yousefi, M. and Alimohammadi, M. (2019). Evaluation of groundwater quality using water quality index and its suitability for assessing water for drinking and irrigation purposes: Case study of Sistan and Baluchistan province (Iran). Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 25(4), 988-1005.

[2] Aghakhani Afshar, A. H., Hassanzadeh, Y., Besalatpour, A. A. and Pourrezabilondi, M. (2016). Annual assessment of Kashafrood watershed basin climate components in future periods by using fifth report of intergovernmental panel on climate change, journal of water and soil conservation, 23(6), 217-233. (In Persian).

[3] Aghlmand, R. and Abbasi, A. (2019). Application of MODFLOW with boundary conditions analyses based on limited available observations: A case study of Birjand plain in East Iran. Water, 11(9), 1904.

[4] Ahmadi, M., Motamedvaziri, B., Ahmadi, H., Moeini, A. and Zehtabian, G. (2020). Evaluation of the impact of climate change on extreme flows in Kan watershed. Journal of Soil and Water Resources Conservation, 9(2), 101-121. (In Persian).

[5] Azare, A., Zehtabian, G.R., Salajegeh, A., Malekian, A. and Boroumand, N. (2016). Modeling the effects of climate change on groundwater decline and land degradation (Case study of Qazvin plain). PhD Thesis, faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran. 197 pages. (In Persian).

[6] Boyce, S.E., Nishikawa, T. and Yeh, W.W. (2015). Reduced order modeling of the Newton formulation of MODFLOW to solve unconfined groundwater flow. Advances in Water Resources, 83, 250-262.

[7] Chen, S. T., Yu, P. S. and Tang, Y. H. (2010). Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation using support vector machines and multivariate analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 385(1-4), 13-22.

[8] Emam, A. R., Kappas, M. and Hosseini, S. Z. (2015). Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin. Hydrology Research, 46(6), 854-870.

[9] Eskandari Damaneh, H., Zehtabian, G.R., Salajegheh, A., Ghorbani, M. and Khosravi, H. (2018). Assessing The Effect of Land Use Changes On Groundwater Quality and Quantity (Case Study: West Basin of Jazmoryan Wetland), Journal of Range and Watershed Management (Iranian Journal of Natural Resources), 71 (3), 578-563. (In Persian).

[10] Eskndari Dameneh, H., Khosravi, H. and Abolhasani, A. (2019). Assessing the Effect of Land Use Changes on Groundwater Quality of Zarand Plain using Satellite Images and Geostatistical, Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 8(20), 67-82. (In Persian).

[11] Etemadi, H. and Delshab, H. (2020). Potential Expected Climate Change Impact on Persian Gulf Coastal Mangrove Ecosystems Based on Temperature and Precipitation Variables. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 22(2), 1-13. (In Persian).

[12] Fu, G., Charles, S. P., Chiew, F. H., Teng, J., Zheng, H., Frost, A. J., Liu, W. and Kirshner, S. (2013). Modelling runoff with statistically downscaled daily site, gridded and catchment rainfall series. Journal of Hydrology, 492, 254–265.

[13] Ghorbani, M., Eskandari-Damaneh, H., Cotton, M., Ghoochani, O. and Borji, M. (2020) Harnessing indigenous knowledge for climate change-resilient water management–lessons from an ethnographic case study in Iran. Climate and Development.

[14] Goodarzi, M. and Mortazavizadeh, F.S. (2020). Assessing climate change impacts on groundwater fluctuations using RCP scenarios: A case study of Hashtgerd plain. Iranian journal of Eco hydrology, 7(3), 801-814. (In Persian).

[15] Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W. (2013). A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change, 10584- 013-0853x.

[16] Hajimohammadi, M., Ghermezcheshmeh, B. and Azizian, A. (2019). Evaluate the performance of SDSM model in different station and predict climate variables for future. Jwmseir, 13 (44), 28-37. (In Persian).

[17] Huang, J., Yu, H., Guan, X., Wang, G. and Guo, R. (2016). Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 166–171.

[18] Jafari, M., Selajgeh, A. and Malekian, A. (2016). Investigating the effects of climate change on the quantity and quality of groundwater aquifers (Case study: Kerman plain). Master Thesis, faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran. (In Persian).

[19] Jafary Godeneh, M., Salajegh, A., And Haghighi, P. (2020). Forecast Comparative of Rainfall and Temperature in Kerman County Using LARS-WG6 Models. Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 7(2), 529-538. (In Persian).

[20] Jebalbarzi, B., Zehtabian, G.R., Tavili, A. and Khosravi, H. (2017). Investigating the effect of haloxylon on groundwater slippage (Case study: in Qom Jafaria area). Master Thesis, faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran. 160 pages. (In Persian).

[21] Jebalbarezi, B., Zehtabian, G.R., Tavili, A. and Khosravi, H. (2019). Investigation of the effect of Haloxylon planted on groundwater resources (Case study: Jafarieh plain Qom). Journal of Range and Watershed Managment, 72(1), 45-54. (In Persian).

[22] Khalili, K., Tahoudi, M.N., Mirabbasi, R. and Ahmadi, F. (2016). Investigation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Iran over the last half century. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess, 30, 1205–1221.

[23] Khorshiddoust, A.M. and Jafarzadeh, F. (2020). Forecasting and Analyzing of Rainfall Changes in the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea in Order to Environmental Planning Using SDSM Model. Journal of geographical-space, 20(70), 37-59. (In Persian).

[24] Kimiagar, V., Fattahi, E. and Alimohammadi, S. (2020). Analyzing effect of different statistical downscaling methods on the predicted streamflow in Karaj dam basin under climate change effect, journal of climate research, 98(38), 17-31. (In Persian).

[25] Liu, Z., Xu, Z., Charles, S. P., Fu, G. and Liu, L. (2011). Evaluation of two statistical downscaling models for daily precipitation over an arid basin in China. International Journal of Climatology, 31(13), 2006–2020.

[26] Mahmood, R. and Babel, M.S. (2013). Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 113, 27–44.

[27] Mesmarian, Z., Massahbavan, A. and Javadipirbazari, S. (2016). Climatechange impact on Groundwater budget of ShahreKord plain in the future periods. Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 3(2), 233-242. (In Persian).

[28] Moghaddam, H. K., Moghaddam, H. K., Kivi, Z. R., Bahreinimotlagh, M., and Alizadeh, M. J. (2019). Developing comparative mathematic models, BN and ANN for forecasting of groundwater levels. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 9, 100237.

[29] Momeneh, S., Azari, A. and Eghbalzadeh, A. (2020). Assessing the effect of climate change on groundwater levels in the upcoming periods, case study: Chamchamal Plain, Journal of Watershed Engineering and Management, 12 (4), 913-928. (In Persian).

[30] Pholkern, K., Saraphirom, P. and Srisuk, K. (2018). Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand. Science of the Total Environment, 633, 1518-1535.

[31] Rasaei, A.H., Sharafati, A., Kardan Moghaddam, H. (2020). Analysis of groundwater uncertainty in climate change (Case study: Hashtgerd Plain), Journal of Echo Hydrology, 7(3), 815-827. (In Persian)

[32] Rastegar, A. and Paimozd, S. (2020). Investigating Climate Change Effects on Groundwater-Level Decline in Kerman Plain via GMS Model, Desert Ecosystem Engineering Journal, 9(26), 43-60. (In Persian).

[33] Razandi, Y., Malekian, A. and Khaliqi, S. (2014). Investigation of groundwater resources using simulation of aquifer behavior by Modflow model: A case study of Varamin plain. Master Thesis. Faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran. (In Persian).

[34] Rejani, R., Jha, M.K., Panda, S.N. and Mull, R. (2008). Simulation modeling for efficient groundwater management in balasore coastal basin, India. Water Resource Managment, 22, 23–50.

[35] Rowell, D.P., Senior, C.A., Vellinga, M., and Graham, R.J. (2016). Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance Climate Change, 134, 621-633.

[36] Salem, G. S. A., Kazama, S., Shahid, S. and Dey, N. C. (2018). Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region. Agricultural Water Management, 208, 33-42.

[37] Sattari, M.T., Mirabbasi, R., Sushab, R.S. and Abraham, J. (2018). Prediction of Level in Ardebil Plain Using Support Vector Regression and M5 Tree Model. Groundwater, 56, 636–646.

[38] Savari, M., Eskandari Damaneh, H. and Eskandari Damaneh, H. (2020). Pathology of Underground Water Resources Management among Local Communities in the Western Basin of Jasmourian Wetland. Jwmr, 11 (21), 84-97. (In Persian).

[39] Shrestha, S., Bach, T. V. and Pandey, V. P. (2016). Climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Mekong Delta under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Environmental Science & Policy, 61, 1-13.

[40] Simmons, C., Bauer-Gottwein, P., Graf, T., Kinzelbach, W., Kooi, H., Li, L. and Ward, J. (2010). Variable density groundwater flow: From modelling to applications.

[41] Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W. and Barrow, E. M. (2002). SDSM—A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts. Environmental Modelling & Software, (2)17, 157-145.

[42] Wilby, R. L. and Dawson, C. W. (2013). The statistical downscaling model: insights from one decade of application. International Journal of Climatology, (7)33, 1719-1707.

Quantifying the size of climate change effect on groundwater draw down in arid and semi-arid regions

References

References

Volume 75, Issue 2September 2022Pages 227-244

Volume 75, Issue 2
September 2022
Pages 227-244