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Simulation of spatio-temporal pattern of Land use changes (emphasis on area under orchard) using Satellite Image and Integrating Marcov Chain Analyse and Geomod Model: A case study: Sofi Chai Basin of Maragheh

    Authors

    • Soghra Andaryani 1
    • Mohammad Hosein Rezaei Moghadam 2
    • khalil Valizadeh Kamran 3
    • Farhad Almaspour 4

    1 PhD student in Environmental Management, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Iran

    2 Professor, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Iran

    3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Iran

    4 Regional Water Authority of East Azarbaijan, Iran

,

Document Type : Research Paper

10.22059/jrwm.2017.137059.937
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Abstract

Forecasting models of Land Use/ Cover changes are the main resources for managers and policy-makers in order to develop a sustainable land management plan. Changes of Orchard-lands have an effect on water resources as well as soil permeability. Thus simulation of this land use changes, in areas where there is a shortage of water resources, can provide more information about the occurred changes during a specified time scales along current management. The present study was carried out to simulate and predict the spatial-temporal changes of the orchard by 2026. For this purpose, Geomod method was used to simulate spatial changes of the orchard. Due to the lack of ability of this model in temporal simulation, Markov chain analysis method was used to solve the mentioned problem with the error proportional of 0.012. Orchard was extracted using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellite data after necessary corrections as well as SVM in 1987, 2000, and 2013. Then, to understand the impact of each of the criteria used to change this type of land use, instead of Delphi methods, logistic regression, Fuzzy standardization and, after all, WLC were used. The ROC index was used to validate the model. The results showed, this model has a good performance to simulate spatial changes because of area under Curve 0.91 for both of the 2000 and 2013. In the 26-years period, there are 294 hectares of orchard development, and the hybrid model showed that this land use will increase to 304 hectares till 2026

Keywords

  • Support vector Machine
  • Logistic regression
  • Weighted Linear Combination
  • Sofi Chai Basin
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Journal of Range and Watershed Managment
Volume 70, Issue 4
January 2018
Pages 822-835
Files
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  • PDF 1.11 M
History
  • Receive Date: 22 March 2016
  • Revise Date: 14 February 2018
  • Accept Date: 02 December 2017
  • First Publish Date: 22 December 2017
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How to cite
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  • Mendeley
  • BibTeX
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Statistics
  • Article View: 368
  • PDF Download: 331

APA

Andaryani, S., Rezaei Moghadam, M. H., Valizadeh Kamran, K., & Almaspour, F. (2017). Simulation of spatio-temporal pattern of Land use changes (emphasis on area under orchard) using Satellite Image and Integrating Marcov Chain Analyse and Geomod Model: A case study: Sofi Chai Basin of Maragheh. Journal of Range and Watershed Managment, 70(4), 822-835. doi: 10.22059/jrwm.2017.137059.937

MLA

Soghra Andaryani; Mohammad Hosein Rezaei Moghadam; khalil Valizadeh Kamran; Farhad Almaspour. "Simulation of spatio-temporal pattern of Land use changes (emphasis on area under orchard) using Satellite Image and Integrating Marcov Chain Analyse and Geomod Model: A case study: Sofi Chai Basin of Maragheh". Journal of Range and Watershed Managment, 70, 4, 2017, 822-835. doi: 10.22059/jrwm.2017.137059.937

HARVARD

Andaryani, S., Rezaei Moghadam, M. H., Valizadeh Kamran, K., Almaspour, F. (2017). 'Simulation of spatio-temporal pattern of Land use changes (emphasis on area under orchard) using Satellite Image and Integrating Marcov Chain Analyse and Geomod Model: A case study: Sofi Chai Basin of Maragheh', Journal of Range and Watershed Managment, 70(4), pp. 822-835. doi: 10.22059/jrwm.2017.137059.937

VANCOUVER

Andaryani, S., Rezaei Moghadam, M. H., Valizadeh Kamran, K., Almaspour, F. Simulation of spatio-temporal pattern of Land use changes (emphasis on area under orchard) using Satellite Image and Integrating Marcov Chain Analyse and Geomod Model: A case study: Sofi Chai Basin of Maragheh. Journal of Range and Watershed Managment, 2017; 70(4): 822-835. doi: 10.22059/jrwm.2017.137059.937

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