Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 tarbiat modarres university
2 Associate Professor
3 assistant professor
Abstract
Overview, drought is effected an unusual dry period which is enough continued and causes imbalance in the hydrologic status, as depletion of surface water and groundwater resources. The purpose of this research is modeling meteorological drought prediction using Neural Network- Multi layer Perceptron, parameters and climatic signals in three time scales include short, middle and long term in a rain-gauge station located at south plain of Qazvin Province. Three different scenarios were tested as inputs model. Optimal combination of variables was determinate by Gamma-Test after identification of input variables using cross-correlation. Results showed, influence of climatic signals increased and against the influence of meteorological parameters decreased when time scale were increased from short-term to long-term. MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) and rainfall were introduced as the most effective climatic signals and meteorological parameter for each scale, respectively. Neural Network modeling which has hidden layer with enough neurons, Sigmoid Function in middle layer and linear function at output layer was used. The most appropriate of the number neurons was determined in each scenario and wasn’t observed significant correlation between increasing or decreasing the error and number of neurons. Finally, the most appropriate network structure was determined based on evaluation indexes in three scenarios and each time scale.
Keywords
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