Evaluation of the Combination of ANFIS Model with Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithms in Predicting Dust Storms of Khuzestan Province

Ansari Ghojghar, Mohammad; Pourgholam-Amiji, Masoud; Araghinejad, Shahab; Zahraie, Banafsheh; Razavi, Saman; Salajegheh, Ali

doi:10.22059/jrwm.2020.311676.1540

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

⁴ Associate Professor, Department of Civil, Geological, and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada.

⁵ Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jrwm.2020.311676.1540

Abstract

Due to the growing development of meta-models and their combination with optimization algorithms for modeling and predicting meteorological variables, in this research four metaheuristic optimization algorithms of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetics Algorithms (GA), Ant Colony Optimization for Continuous Domains (ACOR) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) were combined with the adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model. The performance of four combined models developed with ANFIS model to predict the Frequency variables of Dust Stormy Days (FDSD) on a seasonal scale in Khuzestan province in the southwest of Iran was evaluated. For this purpose, hourly dust data and codes of the Word Meteorological Organization were used on a seasonal scale with a statistical period of 40 years (1980-2019) in seven synoptic stations of Khuzestan province. The results of good fit indices in the training and testing phase showed that there is no significant difference between the ANFIS method and other combined models used. R and RMSE values of the best combined model (ANFIS-PSO) from 0.88 to 0.97 and 0.10 to 0.19, respectively, and in the ANFIS model from 0.83 to 0.94 and 0.11 to 21, respectively, were variable. The results also showed that the combination of optimization algorithms used with the ANFIS model does not significantly improve the results of the model compared to the individual ANFIS model.

Keywords

20.1001.1.50442008.1399.73.4.2.8

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Journal of Range and Watershed Managment

Evaluation of the Combination of ANFIS Model with Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithms in Predicting Dust Storms of Khuzestan Province

References

References

Volume 73, Issue 4
March 2021
Pages 691-708

Evaluation of the Combination of ANFIS Model with Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithms in Predicting Dust Storms of Khuzestan Province

References

References

Volume 73, Issue 4March 2021Pages 691-708

Volume 73, Issue 4
March 2021
Pages 691-708