عوامل تأثیرگذار بر وقوع حریق در مراتع نازلوچای ارومیه با استفاده از تکنیک DEMATEL

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانش آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد مرتع‌داری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ایران.

3 دانشیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر به‌‌منظور تعیین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر وقوع آتش‌سوزی‌‌ها در مراتع کوهستانی نازلوچای، به‌‌عنوان یکی از حوزه‌‌های آبخیز منتهی به دریاچۀ ارومیه، انجام شد. برای شناسایی و تعیین عوامل مؤثر، از تکنیک ارزیابی تصمیم‌‌گیری استفاده شد. در این ارتباط، درصد شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع، نوع (ریختار) پوشش گیاهی، تراکم گونه‌‌های غالب، درصد پوشش تاجی، جمعیت نیروی انسانی، مجاورت با جاده، مجاورت با مناطق مسکونی، مجاورت با زمین‌های کشاورزی، مجاورت با منابع آبی، نوع شغل مردم بومی و کاربری فعلی اراضی، به‌‌عنوان معیارهای تأثیرگذار و تأثیر‌‌پذیر، مد نظر قرار گرفت. با تشکیل ماتریس میانگین، محاسبۀ ماتریس تأثیر روابط مستقیم بی‌‌مقیاس شده، محاسبۀ ماتریس کل (ماتریس مجموع تأثیرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم) و محاسبۀ ماتریس میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری، ترتیب میزان تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری هر یک از معیارهای ذکر شده، مشخص شد. بر مبنای نتایج، کاربری فعلی اراضی، بیشترین تأثیرپذیری (9308/3) و جهت شیب، کمترین تأثیرپذیری (0475/1) را بر پدیدۀ آتش‌‌سوزی‌‌های منطقه داشت. ضمن اینکه کاربری فعلی اراضی و جمعیت نیروی انسانی، به‌‌ترتیب تعامل بیشتری با سایر عوامل آتش‌‌سوزی‌‌ها داشتند و وزن این عوامل بر وقوع پدیدۀ آتش‌‌سوزی، بیشتر بود. بر اساس نتایج بردار ارتباط که معرف قطعیت یک معیار به‌‌عنوان معیار تأثیرگذار است، مجاورت با جاده (43/1) و ارتفاع (6/0)، بیشترین تأثیرگذاری را بر مجموعه عوامل دیگر در زمینۀ وقوع حریق در مراتع منطقه داشتند. نتایج حاصل، می‌‌تواند به کارشناسان منابع طبیعی، در تهیۀ نقشه‌های ریسک آتش‌‌سوزی، کمک کند تا مرحلۀ پیشگیری حریق، آگاهانه‌‌تر و علمی‌‌تر انجام شود. هرچه اطلاعات ورودی نقشه‌های ریسک، دقیق‌تر باشد و تکنیک‌های تصمیم‌‌گیری چند منظوره قوی‌تری به­کار برده شود، نقشه‌های ریسک دقیق‌تری تهیه می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Most Important Factors Influencing the Urmia Rangeland Fire Using DEMATEL

نویسندگان [English]

  • mahshid souri 1
  • payam najafi 2
  • javad motamedi 3
  • saeedeh nateghi 1
1 Assistant Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc. Graduate of Range Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Urmia, Iran.
3 Professor associated, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

To determine these factors, the DEMATEL was used. To determine the most influential factors, several criteria such as slope, slope direction, height, type of cover, density of cover, percentage of cover, human population, proximity to roads, proximity to residential areas, proximity to agricultural lands, proximity to water resources, The type of employment of the natives and the use of the lands were used. The various steps of the decision evaluation method included forming the mean matrix, calculating the effect matrix of non-scaled direct relationships, calculating the total matrix (total direct and indirect effects matrix), calculating the impact matrix and the impact rate, and determining the order of effectiveness and impact. Based on the obtained results, among various factors, land use factor (3.9308) has the most impact and factor for slope has the least impact (1.0475) on the fire phenomenon. Based on the results of the present study, land use factors and human population have more interaction with other fire factors and the weight of these factors is more on the occurrence of fire phenomenon. Also, based on the results of the communication vector, which represents the certainty of a criterion as an influential criterion, the factors adjacent to the road (1.43) and height (0.6) have the greatest impact .The most important application of this information is the use of this information in the preparation of fire risk maps.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fire Prevention
  • Decision Making Techniques
  • Fire Management
  • Urmia
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