Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of agricultural development and management, University of Tehran: ّFaculty member,, University of Jiroft, Jiroft, Iran

2 Department of agricultural development and management, University of Tehran

3 Dept. Agricultural Management and development, University of Tehran

4 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran


Evaluating of the development of crops based on water needs along with detecting and predicting land use changes will provide a clear picture of changes in water resources and anthropogenic effects of the agricultural sector for environmental planners to plan more consciously in the field of water and soil conservation, Therefore, the current study was conducted with two general objectives. The first goal was to examine land use in the past and predict land use in the future using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and logistic regression method. Detecting land use changes was performed using Landsat satellite images including sensors of TM (1990), ETM+ (2001) and OLI (2019). The second object of the study was to examine the development trend of agricultural products in terms of water needs in the last three decades, which was examined based on databases of the Agricultural Jihad Organization (AJO). The transition potential modelling was performed based on logistic regression method and variables of digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, geology, the distance from fault, the distance from road, the distance from river, distance from residential lands, NDVI and land use was predicted using Markov chain in future. Also, the trend of changes in the area under cultivation of major crops based on water needs in Jiroft plain was studied based on the data of the last three decades and the data of the National Irrigation Document, which has been less considered by researchers in land use change studies.


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