نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه شمال آمل

2 استادیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.

3 استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.

4 دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر پیش بینی و مقایسة تغییرات اقلیمی آینده با استفاده از مدل‏های گردش عمومی جو تحت سناریوهای مختلف در حوزة آبخیز تالار استان مازندران بوده است. با توجه به بررسی آمار ایستگاه­های موجود، جهت بررسی پدیدة تغییر اقلیم در حوزة مطالعاتی از مدل LARS-WG5 و سه سناریوی A1B، A2،B1 و هر کدام در سه سری انتشار  2026-2011، 2061-2046 و
2095-2080 با تعیین سال پایه 2007-1992 (به مدت 15 سال) از آمار ایستگاه سینوپتیک منطقه­ای قراخیل قائم شهر استفاده شد. نظر به اینکه مدل LARS-WG5 یکی از معتبرترین روش­های ریز مقیاس نمائی آماری می‎باشد که تولید داده­ها توسط این مدل در سه مرحلةکالیبره کردن، ارزیابی و ایجاد داده­های هواشناسی صورت می­گیرد، لذا مبنایی برای پژوهش صورت گرفته در حوضة مورد مطالعه بوده است. بر اساس نتایج این پژوهش ماه­های می و اکتبر دارای بیشترین تغییرات بارش و ماه­های جولای و آگوست دارای تغییرات شدید کاهشی مخصوصاً در دورة 2095-2080 در دوره­های آتی حوزة مطالعاتی می­باشند که پیامدهای این تغییرات می‏تواند در وقوع سیلاب­های فصلی در ماه­های پربارش و همین­طور وقوع خشکسالی­ها و کمبود آب در فصول کم بارش در حوضه مورد مطالعه مورد توجه دقیق­تر قرار گیرد. از لحاظ دمائی نیز ماه­های ژوئن، جولای، آگوست و سپتامبر با افزایش درجة حرارت در دوره­های آتی و ماه­های ژانویه و فوریه نیز دارای کمترین میانگین دمای شبیه‏سازی شدة آتی می­باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting and Comparison of Future Climate Change by Using of GCM Models under Different Scenarios in Talar Watershed of Mazandaran Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Gholami 1
  • Kaka Shahedi 2
  • Mahmud Habibneghad 3
  • Mahdi Vafakhah 4
  • Karim Solymani 3

1 Faculty member of Shomal University and Phd student in Watershed Management , agriculture and natural resources of sari university

2 agriculture and natural resources of sari university Assistant Prof ,

3 Prof, agriculture and natural resources of sari university

4 Associate Prof,Natural Recources, Faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University

چکیده [English]

Present study is aimed at forecasting and comparison of future climate change by using GCM model (General circulation model) under different climate scenarios in Talar watershed of Mazandaran province. Regarding the data of existing stations, to study the climate change phenomenon in Talar watershed, the LARS-WG5 model and 3 climate scenarios i.e. A1B, A2, B1, each in three emission series i.e. 2011-2026, 2046-2061, and 2080-2095, that were extracted from Gharakhayl regional synoptic stations in Quaemshahr, were used and the base year was considered 1992-2007( for a 15- year duration). Since this model is one of the most authentic statistical downscaling methods and its data is produced in three phases of calibration, evaluation and development of meteorological data, it was applied for research in present study. According to the findings, the most precipitaion changes occurred in May and October and the most severe reductive changes occurred in 2080-2095, the result of which warns about seasonal floods in rainy months and drought or water shortage in dry months in the relevant watershed study area. Besides, in future in June, July, August, and September temperature increase will be experienced but in January and February, the minimum simulated tempreture mean will be observed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • GCM Models
  • Future Temperature and Precipitation
  • Weather Scenarios
  • Talar watershed
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