آشکارسازی روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی و تآثیر آن بر دبی و بار معلق شبیه سازی شده با مدل SWAT (مطالعه موردی: آبخیز گالیکش استان گلستان)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،گرگان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،گرگان، ایران

3 استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،گرگان، ایران

4 استادیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان،گرگان، ایران

5 دانش آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشگاه ملایر،، ملایر، ایران

چکیده

شیوه­های بهره­برداری اراضی، تخریب مناطق جنگلی و مرتعی، رهاسازی اراضی و توسعۀ مناطق مسکونی از جمله عواملی هستند که بر شدت جریان آب، شدت فرسایش و تولید رسوب اثر می­گذارند. به همین دلیل آگاهی ازمیزان اثر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر روی دبی و بار معلق یک ضرورت اجتناب­ناپذیر است. در مطالعۀ حاضر برای بررسی این اثرات از مدل نیمه توزیعی SWAT در آبخیز گالیکش استان گلستان به مساحت تقریبی 39 هزار هکتار استفاده شد. مدل مذکور برای شبیه­سازی، واسنجی و اعتبار­سنجی و در نهایت بهینه­سازی پارامترهای مؤثر بر دبی و بار معلق در یک دورۀ 27 ساله مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نقشه­های کاربری اراضی از سه تصویر ماهوارۀ لندست سال­های 1987، 2000 و 2013 تهیه شدند. در این مطالعه از روش SUFI2 برای واسنجی و اعتبار­سنجی مدل استفاده شد. معیار ناش- ساتکلیف (NS) به عنوان تابع هدف در مرحلۀ واسنجی (1990- 2007) برای دبی و بار معلق به ترتیب 63/0 و 61/0 به­دست آمد که با توجه به دامنه­های تفسیری مورد استفاده در تحقیقات گذشته، قابل قبول ارزیابی شد. برای بررسی اثر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر مقدار رواناب و رسوب تمام ورودی­های مدل به غیر از کاربری اراضی ثابت فرض شد و نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات کاربری اراضی از سال 1987 تا 2013 موجب افزایش ارتفاع رواناب سطحی به میزان 40/1 میلیمتر و افزایش غلظت رسوب به میزان 2 تن در هکتار در سال شده است.

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