بررسی تغییرات مکانی و زمانی آبدهی فصلی و سالانۀ حوزۀ کرخه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار مؤسسۀ آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار پژوهشکدۀ حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار مرکز آموزش عالی امام خمینی (ره)، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران.

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی و کاربری اراضی می­تواند باعث تغییر در روند آبدهی فصلی و سالانۀ رودخانه شود. تغییرات آبدهی سالانه و فصلی رودخانه بایستی در مدیریت و برنامه­ریزی منابع آب در حوزۀ آبخیز مد نظر قرار گیرد. برای این منظور در این تحقیق حوضۀ کرخه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در  تحلیل روند آبدهی این حوزه، سری­های زمانی روزانۀ 15 زیر حوزۀ منتخب در دورۀ زمانی 48-1347 الی 91-1390  استفاده گردید. پس از بازسازی سری­های زمانی زیر حوزه­های منتخب، 5 شاخص آبدهی شامل دبی با احتمال 5، 95 و 50 درصد (Q5,Q10,Q50,Q90,Q95) فصلی و سالانه برای مراحل بعدی پژوهش آماده شد. روند آبدهی فصلی و سالانه با استفاده از روش تایل-سن محاسبه و سپس درصد تغییرات آبدهی در دورۀ زمانی 48-1347 الی 91-1390 برای زیر حوزه­های منتخب تعیین و نقشۀ آبدهی سالانه و فصلی برای هر شاخص تهیه شد. نتایج نشان داد که آبدهی فصلی و سالانه در اغلب زیر حوزه­های منتخب، روند کاهشی و منفی داشت. زیر حوزه­های منتخب جنوب شرق حوزه دارای روند کاهشی کمتری نسبت به دیگر زیر حوزه­ها را دارا بود. دبی کم آبی (Q90,Q95) نسبت به دبی پرآبی (Q5,Q10) روند کاهشی شدیدتری را نشان داد. شاخص پرآبی فصل بهار در زیر حوضۀ کاکارضا و آفرینه روند افزایشی داشتند. این دو زیر حوزه مستقل بوده و تحت تأثیر رواناب زیرحوزه­های دیگر نمی باشد. افزایش روند شاخص پرآبی در این دو زیر حوزه را می توان به افزایش دمای ناشی از تغییر اقلیم و ذوب زود هنگام برف نسبت داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of spatial and temporal variation of seasonal and annual streamflow in Karkheh River Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mojtaba Nassaji Zavareh 1
  • Bagher Ghermezcheshmeh 2
  • Moslem Mohammadpour 3
1 Assistant Professor
2 Researcher of Soil Conservation & Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI)
3 assistance professor of Imam Higher Education Center
چکیده [English]

Land use and climate change can alter the seasonal and annual discharge of rivers. Annual and seasonal river discharge changes should be considered in the management and planning of water resources in basins. For this propose, Karkheh basin was selected for study. For trend analysis of this basin daily discharge time series in 15 sub-basins during the 1969-2012 period. After reconstruction of time series of selected sub-basin, five discharge indicators including seasonal and annual Q5, Q10, Q50, Q90 and Q95 were prepared for future analyses. The seasonal an annual discharge trends were calculated using Thiel-Sen method, then discharge percent changes in the 1969-2012 for selected sub-basins were determined and seasonal and annual discharge map for each indicator was prepared. The result showed that seasonal and annual discharge in most selected sub-basin had decreasing and negative trend. The selected sub-basin in the southeast had less decreasing trend relative to other ones. Low flow (Q5, Q10) relative to high flow (Q90, Q95) had steeper decreasing trend. The spring high flow indicator related to Kakareza and Afrineh sub-basins had increasing trend. These two sub-basins were independent and are not influence by any other runoff. The increase in high flow in these two sub-basins can be caused by increase in temperature due to climate change and early snow melting in recent years

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Discharge analysis
  • Discharge indicator
  • Thiel-Sen method
  • Karkheh basin
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دوره 74، شماره 1
خرداد 1400
صفحه 207-221
  • تاریخ دریافت: 28 دی 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 28 اسفند 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 27 اردیبهشت 1400
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 01 خرداد 1400