بررسی ارتباط خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی در استان خراسان رضوی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی طبیعت و گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی طبیعت وگیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه

چکیده

خشکسالی هواشناسی با تاخیر زمانی بر منابع آب حوزه تاثیر می‌گذارد که منجر به وقوع خشکسالی هیدرولوژیک می‌گردد. ارزیابی تغییرات بارش و خشکسالی برای تعیین بحران‌های آبی موجود و مدیریت منابع آبی الزامی است. این پژوهش در 42 حوزه آبخیز استان خراسان رضوی در طول سال-های 1354-1394 به منظور تعیین رابطه زمانی خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی انجام شد. شدت خشکسالی‌های هیدرولوژیکی با شاخص‌های SDI و شدت خشکسالی هواشناسی با شاخص SPI محاسبه شد. روند تغییرات بارش و دبی سالانه با آزمون من کندال بررسی شد. رابطه زمانی بین شاخص‌های ذکر شده با ضریب همبستگی پیرسون به صورت همزمان و با تاخیر زمانی 1 تا 12 ماه بررسی شد. نتایج آزمون من کندال بیانگر روند منفی دبی در همه حوزه‌ها بوده و بیشترین شیب کاهش دبی در حوزه پل خاتون (052/0-) اتفاق افتاده است. ترکیبی از روند مثبت و منفی تغییرات بارش در حوزه‌های مورد مطالعه مشاهده شد. اما روندهای مثبت محاسبه شده در هیچ کدام از حوزه‌ درسطح 95٪ معنی‌دار نبوده است. در 5/36٪‌ از حوزه‌های مورد مطالعه ضرایب همبستگی معنی‌داری در سطح 95٪ بین SDI و SPI بدست نیامد. در60٪ حوزه‌های مورد مطالعه بیشترین ضریب همبستگی بین بارش و دبی با یک ماه تاخیر، در 25٪ حوزه‌ها بدون تاخیر زمانی در 5/2 ٪ حوزه‌ها با تاخیر زمانی 2 ماهه و در 5/2٪‌ حوزه ها با تاخیر زمانی 12 ماهه بدست آمد. رابطه بین خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی در بیشتر حوزه‌ها معنی‌دار نشد که می‌توان آنرا با وضعیت بدون روند بارش در بیشتر حوزه‌ها و روند کاهشی دبی توجیه کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment the relation of meteorological and hydrological drought in Khorasan Razavi province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Azarakhshi 1
  • Jalil Farzadmehr 2
1 Assistand professor, Dpartment of Nature Engineering and Medicinal Plant, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Torbat Heydarieh
2 Assistand professor, Dpartment of Nature Engineering and Medicinal Plant, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Torbat Heydarieh
چکیده [English]

Meteorological drought affects the water resources of the basin with a time delay, which leads to the occurrence of hydrological drought. Assessment of rainfall variability and drought is necessary to determine the existing water crisis and water resources management. This study was done in 42 watersheds of Khorasan Razavi province during 1975 to 2015 years to determine the temporal relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought. The hydrological drought severity was calculated with SDI index and meteorological drought was calculated with SPI index. The trend of precipitation and discharge was investigated with Mann-Kendall test. The temporal relationship between the mentioned indices was studied with Pearson correlation coefficient as simultaneously and with a time delay from one to 12 months. The results of Mann- Kendall test were indicative the negative trend of discharge in all watersheds and the most negative slop (-0.052) occurs in PolKhaton watershed. A combination of positive and negative trends in precipitation changes was observed in the study areas. However, the calculated positive trends were not significant at the 95% level in any of the watersheds. In 36.5% of the studied watersheds, no significant correlation coefficients were obtained at 95% level between SDI and SPI. In 60% of the studied watersheds, the highest correlation coefficient between precipitation and discharge with one-month delay, in 25% of watersheds without time delay, in 12.5% of watersheds with 2 months’ time delay and in 2.5% of watersheds with a time delay of 12 months were obtained.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mann-Kendall test
  • Delay time
  • Discharge
  • SPI index
  • SDI index
  • Pearson correlation coefficient
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