نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران
2 کارشناس ارشد مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان اصفهان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اصفهان، ایران
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش الویت‌بندی عوامل موثر، پهنه‌بندی و ارزیابی حساسیت نسبت به رخداد زمین‌لغزش با استفاده از روشهای احتمالاتی دومتغیره حداکثر آنتروپی و دمپسترشفر در حوزه آبخیز دوآب صمصامی استان چهارمحال و بختیاری میباشد. بدینمنظور پس از شناسایی، تهیه و آماده‌سازی نقشه 15عامل موثر بر رخداد زمین‌لغزش به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل و نقشه پراکنش زمین‌لغزش بهعنوان متغیر وابسته با استفاده از شاخص نسبت فراوانی (FR) و نقشه پراکنش زمینلغزشها در محیط ArcGIS®10.8 اقدام به وزندهی یا کمی کردن آنها گردید. دادههای پراکنش زمین‌لغزش به دو دسته داده آموزشی و آزمایشی با نسبت 70 و 30 درصد بهترتیب به منظور اجرا و اعتبارسنجی بصورت تصادفی تقسیم شدند. با استفاده از 15 عامل موثر و نقشه پراکنش زمینلغزشها مدل‌های حداکثر آنتروپی و دمپسترشفر اجرا و نقشههای پهنه‌بندی حساسیت نسبت به رخداد زمین‌لغزش تهیه و هر کدام به پنج رده حساسیت از خیلیکم تا خیلیزیاد تقسیم شدند. ارزیابی دقت طبقهبندی و اعتبارسنجی مدلها به ترتیب از نمودار شاخصهای نسبت فراوانی-سطح سلول هسته (FR&SCAI) و سطح زیر منحنی ویژگی عملکرد گیرنده (AUC-ROC) استفاده گردید. با توجه به نتایج اجرای مدل حداکثر آنتروپی، عوامل بارش سالیانه، سنگشناسی، فاصله از جاده و آبراهه، به ترتیب بیشترین اهمیت را در رخداد زمینلغزشها دارند. در هر دو مدل، بیش از 50 درصد زمینلغزشها در ردههای حساسیت زیاد و خیلیزیاد رخ دادهاند. نهایتاً نتایج اعتبارسنجی مدلها نشان داد مدل دمپسترشفر با شاخص AUC-ROC معادل 95/0 و دقت طبقهبندی با شاخص FR&SCAI بالاتر، کارآمدی و مطلوبیت بیشتری برای پهنه‌بندی، مدلسازی و پیشبینی رخداد زمینلغزشها در منطقه مورد مطالعه دارا میباشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Prioritization of effective parameters and landslide susceptibility zonation using maximum entropy and dempster shafer in Doab Samsami, Chaharmahal Bakhtiyari
نویسندگان [English]
- Kourosh Shirani 1
- Reza Naderi Samani 2
1 Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
2 Researcher, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources, Research and Education Center, AREEO, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]
The aim of this study is to prioritize effective factors, landslide susceptibility zonation assessment using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and dempster shafer models in Doab Samsami watershed of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. For this purpose, 15 factor maps affecting landslide occurrence as independent variables and landslide distribution map as a dependent variable were prepared and weighted using frequency ratio index (FR) and landslide distribution map in the environment ArcGIS® 10.8 . In order to implementation and validation of models, landslide distribution data were randomly divided into two categories of training and test data in the proportion of 70 and 30%, respectively. Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) and Dempster Shaffer models are performed and landslide susceptibility zonation maps are prepared and each model is divided into five very low to very high. In order to evaluate the classification accuracy and validation of the models, the frequency ratio and seed cell area index (FR&SCAI) and the area under receiver characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) were used, respectively. According to the results of the maximum entropy model, annual precipitation factors, lithology, distance to road and drainage land use are important in landslide occurrence, respectively. According to landslide susceptibility zonation maps in both models, more than 50% of landslides occurred in high and very high susceptibility categories. Finally, the validation results of the models showed that the Demester shafer model with AUC-ROC index of 0.95 and classification accuracy with higher FR & SCAI index, greater efficiency and desirability for zoning, modeling and landslide prediction in the study area.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Landslide
- Doab Samsami watershed
- zonation
- maximum entropy
- dempster shafer
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