نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر پسادکتری گروه احیاء مناطق خشک کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران.

2 استاد دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

4 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

در تحقیق حاضر به ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم در دشت میناب و تأثیر آن بر نوسانات سطح آب زیرزمینی در دوره آتی پرداخته شده است. جهت بررسی پدیده تغییر اقلیم از مدل اقلیمی CanESM2 با‌استفاده از نرم‌افزار SDSM4.2 و برای مدل‌سازی کمی تأثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب زیرزمینی از نرم‌افزار GMS10.0.5 تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 استقاده شد. نتایج حاصل از بررسی پدیده تغییر اقلیم در دوره آتی در سناریوها ی ذکر شده نشان داد که به‌ترتیب دما به میزان 88/1، 60/2 و 28/4 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش و بارش به میزان 19/34، 08/42 و 43/59 درصد نسبت به حالت پایه کاهش می‌یابد. نتایج اعمال سناریوهای اقلیمی با‌استفاده از مدل آب زیر‌زمینی نشان داد که به دلیل کاهش بارندگی در این دوره، در سناریوهای مذکور متوسط تراز سطح آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی 1398، 1403، 1408 و 1414 نسبت به تراز سطح آب در سال پایه (1383-1382) به ترتیب در سناریو RCP2.6 برابر با 99/13-، 003/19-، 70/22- و 61/25- متر در سال برای سناریو RCP4.5 به‌ترتیب برابر با 99/13-، 95/18-، 75/22- و 73/24- متر در سال و برای سناریو RCP8.5 برای سال‌های مذکور به‌ترتیب برابر با 23/14-، 22/19-، 003/22- و 46/25- متر برآورد شد. این کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما حاصل از تغییرات اقلیمی و به دنبال آن افزایش بهره‌برداری از سطح آب زیرزمینی برای مصارف متعدد باعث کاهش روز افزون منابع آب زیرزمینی شده است لذا توصیه می‌گردد برنامه‌ریزان راهکارهای لازم برای سازگاری با شرایط آب و هوایی جدید و کمبود آب در این منطقه اتخاذ نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Quantifying the size of climate change effect on groundwater draw down in arid and semi-arid regions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Eskandari Damaneh 1
  • Gholamreza Zehtabian 2
  • Hassan Khosravi 3
  • Hossein Azarnivand 2
  • Aliakbar Barati 4

1 Postdoctoral researcher, Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran.

2 Professor, faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran

4 , Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

The present research aims to assess climate change in the Minab plain and its effect on groundwater level variability in the future period. Climate change was explored by the climatic model CanESM2 using the SDSM4.2 software package, and the effect of climate change on groundwater resources was quantitatively modeled in the GMS10.0.5 software package under the emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results for the effect of climate change in the future period in the context of these scenarios showed that temperature will increase by 1.88ºC, 2.60ºC, and 4.28ºC and precipitation will decrease by 34.19%, 42.08%, and 59.43% versus the reference year, respectively. The results for the application of the climatic scenarios using the groundwater model revealed that due to the decline of precipitation in this period, mean groundwater level balance in the future periods leading to 2019, 2024, 2029, and 2035 versus the reference year (2003-2004) will be -13.99, -19.003, -22.70, and -25.61 m/yr in RCP2.6, -13.99, -18.95, -22.75, and -24.73 m/yr in RCP4.5, and -14.23, -19.22, -22.003, and -25.46 m/yr in RCP8.5, respectively. This shows that the drawdown will be being aggravated over time. Finally, this decline of precipitation and rise in temperature due to climate change and the subsequent increase in water abstraction for different uses will result in the growing depletion of the groundwater tables in Minab. So, it is recommended to planners and authorities to adopt strategies for adaptation to new climatic conditions and water scarcity and accommodate themselves with future conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Minab Plain
  • Groundwater
  • GMS
  • Canesm2
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