پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus در رویشگاه‌‌های مرتعی البرز جنوبی، استان قزوین

معتمدی, جواد; خداقلی, مرتضی

doi:10.22059/jrwm.2022.339573.1647

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

² دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگل‌‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jrwm.2022.339573.1647

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی در دو دهه اخیر، یک موضوع جدی بوده و بسیاری از مطالعات، بر جنبه‌‌های مختلف آن متمرکز شده‌‌اند. در پژوهش حاضر، به بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش گونه Bromus tomentellus، پرداخته شد. برای اینکار، از 19 متغیر زیست اقلیمی و سه متغیر‌‌ فیزیوگرافی و مدل رگرسیون لجستیک، برای تعیین کمیت تغییر اقلیم در سال 2050 و بررسی دقیق اثرات آن بر تغییر گستره گونه B. tomentellus استفاده شد. ابتدا با استفاده از 17 ایستگاه سینوپتیک داخل و مجاور استان، پایگاه داده متغیرهای بارش، دمای شبانه، دمای روزانه و متوسط دما، تشکیل و 19 سنجه اقلیمی، محاسبه شد. همچنین با استفاده از مدل رقومی ارتفاع، با دقت 30 متر؛ متغیرهای فیزیوگرافی شیب، جهت و ارتفاع، تهیه شد. سپس، نقاط حضور و غیاب گونه مشخص شد و با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک، رفتار رویشی آن، مشخص و نقشه مدل‌سازی شده و معادلات مربوطه در شرایط کنونی، محاسبه شد. با استفاده از معادلات فعلی و قرار دادن داده‌های استخراج شده از پایگاهWorldclime ؛ نقشه پراکنش آینده، برای سال 2050 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، تولید گردید. نتایج نشان داد؛ میانگین دمای سالانه (BIO1)، دامنه دمای سالانه (BIO7) و میانگین دمای سردترین فصل (BIO11)، بیشترین اهمیت را برای تناسب رویشگاه دارند که مقادیر آنها، با سخت‌‌تر شدن شرایط اقلیمی، افزایش می‌‌یابد. میانگین دمای سالانه در مکان‌‌هایی با احتمال وقوع بیشتر از 75 درصد؛ طی سه دهه آینده، 6/1 تا 1/2 درجه سانتی‌‌گراد، افزایش خواهد داشت. ارتفاع رویشگاه‌‌های مناسب آن نیز، 115 تا 190 متر، بیشتر خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of current and future range of Bromus tomentellus in southern Alborz rangeland habitats, Qazvin province

نویسندگان [English]

Javad Motamedi ¹
Morteza Khodagholi ²

¹ Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

² Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades, and many studies have focused on its various aspects. In the present study, the effect of climate change on the distribution of Bromus tomentellus was investigated. To do this, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and logistic regression model were used to quantify climate change in 2050 and to study its effects on the change of B.tomentellus species. First, using 17 synoptic stations in and near the province, a database of precipitation variables, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also using the digital model of height, with an accuracy of 30 meters; physiographic variables of slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, the presence and absence points of the species were determined and using logistic regression, its vegetative behavior was determined and the modeled map and related equations in the current conditions were calculated. Using current equations and inserting data extracted from the Worldclime database; the future distribution map for 2050 was generated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed; the average annual temperature (BIO1), the annual temperature range (BIO7) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) are the most important for habitat fit, the values of which increase with increasing climatic conditions. Average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades, it will rise by 1.6 to 1.2 degrees Celsius.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Rangeland ecosystems
Climate change
Range shift of Species
Habitat modeling

مراجع

[1] Abolmaali, S.M.R., Tarkesh Esfahani, M. and Bashri, H. (2017). Assessing impacts of climate change on endangered Kelossia odoratissima Mozaff species distribution using Generalized Additive Model. Journal of Natural Environment, 70(2): 243-254.

[2] Anderson, R. P. (2013): A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions. - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1297:8-28.

[3] Araujo, M.B. and Guisan, A. (2006). Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modeling. Journal of Biogeography, 33:1677-88.

[4] Archer, S. R., Predick, K. I. (2008): Climate change and ecosystems of the southwestern United States. - Rangelands 30:23-8.

[5] Armaki, M.A., Hashemi, M., Azarnivand, H. (2013). Physiological and morphological responses of three Bromus species to drought stress at seedling stage and grown under germinator and greenhouse conditions. African Journal of Plant Science, 7:155-61.

[6] Attorre, F., Francesconi, F., Taleb, N., Scholte, P., Saed, A., Alfo, M. and Bruno, F. (2007). Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen). Biological Conservation, 138:430-9.

[7] Bazrmanesh, A., Tarkesh, M., Bashari, H. and Poormanafi, S. (2019). Effect of climate change on the ecological niches of the climate of Bromus tomentellus using Maxent in Isfahan province. Journal of Range and Watershed Mangement, 71(4): 857-867.

[8] Collevatti, R.G., Nabout, J.C. and Diniz-Filho, J.A.F. (2011). Range shift and loss of genetic diversity under climate change in Caryocar brasiliense, a Neotropical tree species. Tree Genetics & Genomes, 7:1237-47.

[9] Ferrarini, A., Rossi, G., Mondoni, A. and Orsenigo, S. (2014). Prediction of climate warming impacts on plant species could be more complex than expected, evidence from a case study in the Himalaya. Ecological Complexity, 20: 307-314.

[10] Habibi Nokhandan, M., Gholami Beriaghdar, M. and Shaemi Barzoki, A. (2010). Climate chane and global warming. Climatological Research Institute Press, 136p.

[11] Ilunga Nguy, K. and Shebitz, D. (2019). Characterizing the spatial distribution of Eragrostis Curvula (Weeping Lovegrass) in New Jersey (United States of America) using logistic regression. Environments, 6 (125): 1-14.

[12] IPCC (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York.

[13] IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Agenda, 6:333.

[14] Iverson, L.R. and Mckenzie, D. (2013). Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting. Landscape Ecology, 28:879-89.

[15] Jalili, A. (2021). The need to change the approach in managing the country's natural environments Part 5 The need to change the approach in range management: Development of rangeland management plans using the ecosystem approach. Journal of Iran Nature, 6(2): 3-3.

[16] Keith, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G.F., Pearson, R.G., Phillips, S.J., Regan, H.M., Arajo, M.B. and Rebelo, T.G. (2008). Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, 4:560-563.

[17] King, D.A., Bachelet, D.M. and Symstad, A.J. (2013). Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model. Ecology and Evolution, 3:5076-5097.

[18] Krebs, C.J. (2009). Ecology: The experimental analysis of distribution and abundance. 6^th ed. Benjamin Cummings, San Francisco. 655p.

[19] Lawler, J.J., White, D., Neilson, R.P. and Blaustein, A.R. (2006). Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability. Global Change Biology, 12: 1568-1584.

[20] Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P. and Pearson, R.G. (2005). Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28: 385-393.

[21] Monserud, R.A. and Leemans, R. (1992). Co mparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modeling, 62: 275-293.

[22] Morin, X. and Thuiller, W. (2009). Comparing niche-and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. Ecology, 90:1301-1313.

[23] Qazi Moradi, M. and Ebrahimi, A.A. (2020). Modeling the potential habitat of Ferula ovina now and in the coming years using a generalized incremental model (Case study: Fereydunshahr, Isfahan). Iranian Journal of Range and Desert Research, 27(2); 321-333.

[24] Rechinger, K.H. (1963-1998). Flora iranica. Akademische Druck, Germany.

[25] Saboohi, R. and Khodagholi, M. (2013). Studying the acclimation of Bromus tomentellus in Isfahan Province. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology, 2(4): 57-72.

[26] Safaeei, M., Tarkesh Esfahani, M. and Basiri, M. (2013). Preparation of response curves of yellow species (Astragalus verus) to the slope of environmental changes using None Parametric Multiplicative Regression method in Fereydunshahr area of Isfahan province. Journal of Plant and Ecology, 36: 53-64.

[28] Taylor, M.A., Stephenson T.S., Anthony Chen, A. and Stephenson, K.A. (2012). Climate change and the caribbean: Review and response. Caribbean Studies, 40 (2): 169-200.

[29] Teimoori Asl, S., Naghipoor, A.A., Ashrafzadeh, M.R. and Heydarian, M. (2020). Predicting the impact of climate change on potential habitats of Stipa hohenackeriana Trin & Rupr in Central Zagros. Journal of Rangeland, 14(3): 526-538.

[30] Thomas, L.E., Gerald., S., Rehfeldt C. and Celestino, F. (2010). Projection of suitable habitate for rare species under global warming scenario. American Journal of Botany, 97 (6): 970-987.

[31] Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Arajo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. and Prentice, I.C. (2005). Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102:8245-8250.

[32 Thuiller, W. (2007): Biodiversity: climate change and the ecologist. - Nature 448:550-2.

[33] Tongli, W. and Elizabeth, C. (2012). Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications. Forest Ecology and Management, 279: 128-140.

[34] Warren, R., Van Der Wal, J., Price, J., Welbergen, J.A., Atkinson, I. and Ramirez-Villegas, J. (2013). Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nature Climate Change, 3 (7): 678-682.

[35] Zwicke, M., Picon-Cochard, C., Morvan-Bertrand, A., Prud’homme, M.P. and Volaire, F. (2015). What functional strategies drive drought survival and re-covery of perennial species from upland grassland? Annals of Botany, 116:1001-1015.

نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری

پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus در رویشگاه‌‌های مرتعی البرز جنوبی، استان قزوین

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 75، شماره 2
شهریور 1401
صفحه 319-332

پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus در رویشگاه‌‌های مرتعی البرز جنوبی، استان قزوین

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 75، شماره 2شهریور 1401صفحه 319-332

دوره 75، شماره 2
شهریور 1401
صفحه 319-332