نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد رودهن، رودهن، ایران.

10.22059/jrwm.2024.364522.1724

چکیده

پایگاه‌های داده‌های جهانی، یک منبع کامل از اطلاعات مورد نیاز بارش را در اختیار کاربران قرار می‌دهد. هدف از این تحقیق، بررسی دقت پایگاه‌های داده-های جهانی بارش TRMM، NCEP و MERRA، در تخمین بارش روزانه و ماهانه حوزه آبریز بالخلوچای استان اردبیل می‌باشد. داده‌های بارش ایستگاه سینوپتیک نیر از سال 2002 تا 2018 از سازمان هواشناسی و سه پایگاه ذکر شده اخذ گردید. برای بررسی روند و همگنی داده‌های بارش، از آزمون‌های من-کندال، من-ویتنی و نرمال استاندار استفاده شد. برای سه پایگاه داده جهانی بارش، شاخص‌های R2 ، RMSE، NSE ، RE و GMER تعیین شد. نتایج آزمون همگنی داده‌ها نشان داد که تمام P-Value های مورد نظر بالاتر از 05/0 بوده و داده‌های مربوط به بارش کاملا تصادفی و همگن می‌باشند. در دو پایگاه TRMM و NCEP ضریب R2 در حد خوب بوده و بالای 6/0 به دست آمده است. پایگاه MERRA در این مورد عملکرد ضعیف‌تری داشته است. برای دوره ماهانه، در دو پایگاه داده TRMM و NCEP، شاخص NSE بالاتر از 5/0 به دست آمد که بیانگر قابل استناد بودن داده‌های تولید شده بارش در این دو ایستگاه می‌باشد. در سطح روزانه و ماهانه، برای هر سه پایگاه داده جهانی پارامتر GMER کوچکتر از واحد به دست آمد که نشان می‌دهد هر سه پایگاه دارای بیش برآوردی می‌باشند. بیش تخمینگری برای پایگاه داده جهانی MERRA بسیار شدیدتر از دو پایگاه دیگر می‌باشد. پایگاه داده MERRA نسبت به پایگاه داده‌های NCEP و TRMM عملکرد ضعیف‌تری دارد. در کل پایگاه TRMM نسبت به پایگاه‌های دیگر کارایی بهتری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of global precipitation databases with observed precipitation values in Balkhlochay basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shapur Karimi
  • Babak Aminnejad
  • Amirpouya Sarraf

Civil Engineering Department, Roudehen Branch, Islamic Azad University, Roudehen, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Global databases provide complete source of required precipitation information for users. The aim of this study is to investigate the accuracy of the TRMM, NCEP and MERRA global precipitation databases in estimating the daily and monthly precipitation in the Balkhaluchai catchment area of Ardabil province. Precipitation data of Nir station the three mentioned databases were extracted from 2002 to 2018. Mann-Kendall, Mann-Whitney and standard normal tests were used to check the trend and homogeneity of precipitation data. For three global precipitation databases, amount of R2, RMSE, NSE, RE and GMER were determined. The results of homogeneity test showed that all P-values were higher than 0.05 and the precipitation data were completely stochastic and homogeneous and no trends were observed in them. In both TRMM and NCEP databases, the R2 coefficient is good and is above 0.6. The MERRA database has had a weaker performance in this case. For the monthly period and the two TRMM and NCEP databases, the NSE index was higher than 0.5, which indicates the reliability of the precipitation data produced in these two stations. At the daily and monthly level, for all three global databases the GMER parameter values were obtained smaller than unity, which indicates that all global databases have overestimates. The overestimation of precipitation for the MERRA global database is much more severe than other two databases. MERRA database has a much weaker performance than NCEP and TRMM databases. In general, the TRMM database has a better efficiency than other databases.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • precipitation
  • Daily
  • Monnthly
  • TRMM
  • NCEP
  • MERRA
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